经济政策不确定性对盈余管理影响的实证研究——基于管理者行为的中介效应  

An Empirical Study on the Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Earnings Management-- Mediating Effects Based on Managers' Behavior

作　　者：侯巧铭[1] 郭鑫茹 Hou Qiaoming;Guo Xinru(Shenyang University of Technology,Shenyang 110870,Liaoning)

机构地区：[1]沈阳工业大学,辽宁沈阳110870

出　　处：《中国商论》2024年第13期155-159,共5页China Journal of Commerce

基　　金：2023年度辽宁省社会科学规划基金项目(L23BGL012)。

摘　　要：当前,我国经济已进入新的发展阶段,经济政策不断调整,企业作为经济政策的接受者,要改变管理决策应对其所面临的不确定性,盈余管理则是其中一种。本文以2012—2021年中国非金融类上市公司为研究样本,在研究经济政策不确定性与盈余管理关系的基础上,探索了管理者行为在经济政策不确定性与盈余管理关系中的渠道作用。研究发现:经济政策不确定性显著提高了企业应计盈余管理和真实盈余管理的程度。在此基础上,经济政策不确定性通过管理者过度自信增加了企业的应计盈余管理;通过管理者代理行为增加了企业的真实盈余管理。Currently,China's economy has entered a new stage of economic growth,accompanied by continually evolving economic policies.As recipients of these policies,enterprises must adapt their management decisions to cope with the uncertainties they encounter,with earnings management being one of them.Taking non-financial listed companies in China from 2012 to 2021 as the research sample,this paper,based on studying the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and earnings management,explores the channel role of managers'behavior in the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and earnings management.It is found that economic policy uncertainty significantly improves accrual earnings management and real earnings management.On this basis,economic policy uncertainty increases enterprises'accrual earnings management through managerial overconfidence and real earnings management through managerial agency behavior.

关 键 词：经济政策不确定性 盈余管理 管理者代理行为 管理者过度自信 中介效应 

分 类 号：F279.23[经济管理—企业管理] F275[经济管理—国民经济]