集装箱港口集疏运重卡电动化的经济性分析  

Economic analysis on the electrification of heavy-duty truck for container ports’hinterland transportation

作　　者：陶学宗[1] 林泽宇 许登豪 TAO Xue-Zong;LIN Ze-Yu;XU Deng-Hao(College of Transport and Communications,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 201306,China)

机构地区：[1]上海海事大学交通运输学院,上海201306

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2024年第3期351-360,共10页Climate Change Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(72074141)。

摘　　要：为分析集装箱港口集疏运重卡电动化的经济性,考虑购置税优惠、补贴、贷款、排放成本等因素,建立广义总拥有成本现值估算模型,构建经济性分析指标,并分析“购买底盘+电池”(方案1)和“购买底盘+租赁电池”(方案2)的经济性。结果表明,在设定条件下,无论是否考虑排放成本,两种方案都不具经济性,但考虑排放成本能有效缓解重卡电动化的成本劣势。当考虑排放成本且其他因素不变时,若电池租金<5.61万元,或电价≤1.28元/(kW·h),或油价≥8.48元/L,或柴油重卡能耗强度≥0.40 L/km,或电动重卡能耗强度≤1.34 (kW·h)/km,方案2具有经济性。类似地,若使方案1具有经济性,应满足电池价格<22.11万元,或电价<1.23元/(kW·h),或油价>8.72元/L,或柴油重卡能耗强度≥0.41 L/km,或电动重卡能耗强度≤1.28 (kW·h)/km。免征电动重卡购置税能有效改善两种方案的经济性指标。调增单位排放成本或电动重卡补贴额度虽能确保两种方案都具有经济性,但其所需调增幅度较高,可能增加重卡司机或政府的经济负担。To analyze the economics of electrifying heavy-duty trucks(HDT)for container ports’hinterland transportation,a model was developed to estimate the present value of their generalized total cost of ownership(GTCO).The model considered factors such as purchase tax incentives,subsidies,loans,and emission costs.Next,an indicator was constructed for the economic analysis of electrifying HDT.Then,two electrification plans,namely“buy chassis and battery”(Plan One)and“buy chassis but lease battery”(Plan Two)were analyzed.The results show that two plans are not economical under the case conditions of whether emission costs are considered or not,but considering emission costs can effectively mitigate the cost disadvantage of electrifying HDT.If emission costs are considered and all other factors remain constant,Plan Two will be economical if the battery rental is less than CNY 56100,or the electricity price is less than or equal to CNY 1.28/(kW∙h),or the fuel price is greater than or equal to CNY 8.48/L,or the energy intensity of diesel HDT(dHDT)is greater than or equal to 0.40 L/km,or the energy intensity of electric HDT(eHDT)is less than or equal to 1.34(kW∙h)/km.Similarly,if Plan One is made economical,it should satisfy that the battery price is less than CNY 221100,or the electricity price is less than CNY 1.23/(kW∙h),or the fuel price is greater than CNY 8.72/L,or the energy intensity of dHDT is greater than or equal to 0.41 L/km,or the energy intensity of eHDT is less than or equal to 1.28(kW∙h)/km.Exempting eHDT from the vehicle purchase tax does not guarantee that either plan is economical,but it can improve the economical indicators of both plans.Although increasing the unit emission cost or subsidy amount of eHDT can ensure that both plans are economical,the required increase ratio is high,which may increase the financial burden on HDT drivers or the government.

关 键 词：集装箱港口 集疏运 重卡电动化 经济性分析 广义总拥有成本(GTCO) 排放成本 

分 类 号：F552[经济管理—产业经济]