数字经济的就业效应:创造还是替代?——来自微观企业的模型与实证  

The Employment Effect of the Digital Economy:Creation or Replacement?—Model and Empirical Evidence from Micro-enterprises

作　　者：詹新宇 郑嘉梁 ZHAN Xinyu;ZHENG Jialiang(School of Economics,Beijing Technology and Business University,Beijing 100048,China;School of Public Finance and Taxation,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan,Hubei 430073,China)

机构地区：[1]北京工商大学经济学院,北京100048 [2]中南财经政法大学财政税务学院,湖北武汉430073

出　　处：《北京工商大学学报（社会科学版）》2024年第4期30-44,共15页JOURNAL OF BEIJING TECHNOLOGY AND BUSINESS UNIVERSITY:SOCIAL SCIENCES

基　　金：研究阐释党的二十大精神国家社会科学基金重大项目“以高质量发展推进现代化建设的核心要求与制度保障研究”(23ZDA027);中南财经政法大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项研究生科研创新平台项目“数字经济的就业效应:创造还是替代?——来自微观企业的模型与实证”(202310429)。

摘　　要：数字经济带来了大规模的社会性、系统性变革,在推动经济高质量发展的同时,也会深刻冲击现有的就业格局。在理论分析的基础上,基于2011—2020年中国A股上市企业数据,使用高维固定效应模型探讨数字经济对就业的影响及其机制。研究发现,数字经济发展整体上扩大了就业规模,原因在于数字经济在核心及相关行业中的就业创造效应大于其在弱关联行业中的就业替代效应。机制分析表明,在核心及相关行业中,数字经济通过要素配置、岗位价值和劳动生产率三条路径正向影响就业规模;在弱关联行业中,数字经济发展带来的劳动生产率提高和资本投入提升产生了就业挤出效应,并且数字经济发展也没有提升岗位价值。因此,政府在充分激活数字经济就业创造效应的同时,应兼顾防范化解数字经济的就业替代风险,根据行业特点制定不同的数字经济发展政策,尤其加强对数字经济弱关联行业的就业支持。Employment is the foundation of people s livelihood and the basis for development.As a large-scale social and systemic transformation,the digital economy,while promoting high-quality economic and social development,will also profoundly impact the existing employment patterns.Based on theoretical model analysis and using data from Chinese A-share listed companies from 2011 to 2020,this study explores the impact of the digital economy on employment and its mechanisms using a high-dimensional fixed effects model.The benchmark regression results show that the development of the digital economy has overall increased employment scale.However,an analysis of the employment structure reveals that the overall employment effect of the digital economy is significantly positive,mainly because the creation effect in the core digital and related industries outweighs the substitution effect in weakly related industries.Mechanism analysis indicates that the underlying reasons for these phenomena are the opposing effects generated by the digital economy in the pathways of factor allocation,post value,and productivity.Therefore,to achieve coordinated development between the digital economy and the labor market in the new era,the government needs to fully activate the employment creation effects of the digital economy while also guarding against and mitigating the employment substitution risks of the digital economy,and formulate different digital economy development policies based on industry characteristics.

关 键 词：数字经济 就业规模 要素配置 岗位价值 劳动生产率 

分 类 号：F49[经济管理—产业经济] F241.4