GM(1,1)模型在安徽省城镇化水平预测中的应用  

Application of GM(1,1)Model in the Prediction of Urbanization Level in Anhui Province

作　　者：贾朝勇[1] 潘玉荣[1] 马程[1] Jia Chaoyong;Pan Yurong;Ma Cheng(Bengbu University)

机构地区：[1]蚌埠学院

出　　处：《哈尔滨师范大学自然科学学报》2024年第1期30-35,共6页Natural Science Journal of Harbin Normal University

基　　金：蚌埠学院自然科学重点项目“改进的组合赋权-云模型及其相关应用”(2023ZR03zd);安徽省高校自然科学研究重点项目“随机微分方程的参数估计及其在期权定价中的应用”(KJ2021A1128);安徽省高校自然科学研究重点项目“基于深度学习的工业表面缺陷检测技术研究及应用”(2022AH05191)。

摘　　要：为了推进安徽省城镇化建设,制定正确的城镇发展方针政策是十分必要的.而对安徽省未来城镇化水平进行合理预测则可为政府制定城镇发展方针政策提供理论依据.现选取2010~2021年的安徽省城镇化率作为研究数据,采用GM(1,1)模型对安徽省城镇化水平建立动态预测模型,并对建立的模型进行了检验.研究表明:GM(1,1)模型具有较好的拟合精度,建模精度达到99.38%.运用GM(1,1)模型对2022~2026年安徽省城镇化率进行预测,预测结果显示未来几年安徽省城镇化水平将呈上升趋势.In order to promote the construction of urbanization in Anhui,it is necessary to formulate correct urban development policies.The reasonable prediction of the future urbanization level of Anhui Province can provide a theoretical basis for the government to formulate urban development policies.In this paper,the urbanization rate of Anhui Province from 2010 to 2021 is selected as the research data,used GM(1,1)model,a dynamic prediction model for the urbanization level of Anhui Province is established,and the established model is tested.The research shows that the GM(1,1)model has good ftting accuracy,and the modeling accuracy reaches 99.38%.The GM(1,1)model is used to predict the urbanization rate of Anhui Province from 2022~2026.The prediction results show that the urbanization level of Anhui Province will show an upward trend in the next few years.

关 键 词：GM(1 1)模型 安徽省 城镇化率 预测 

分 类 号：F290[经济管理—国民经济]