基于参数自适应随机模型预测控制的风光氢耦合系统功率调控策略  

Power Regulation Strategy of Wind-Solar-Hydrogen Coupling System Based on Parameter Adaptive Stochastic Model Predictive Control

作　　者：黄宇[1] 周新鹏 郭浩德 王东风[1] 谢家乐 HUANG Yu;ZHOU Xinpeng;GUO Haode;WANG Dongfeng;XIE Jiale(Department of Automation,North China Electric Power University,Baoding 071003,Hebei Province,China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学自动化系,河北保定071003

出　　处：《动力工程学报》2024年第7期1109-1117,共9页Journal of Chinese Society of Power Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(52207235);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(2121MS089)。

摘　　要：针对风光氢耦合系统源荷两侧不确定性对其系统功率平衡造成的影响,提出了一种基于场景分析法的参数自适应随机模型预测控制功率调控策略。根据风光氢耦合系统的能源供给架构建立了描述其动态特性的线性离散状态空间模型;通过场景分析法对系统不确定性进行描述,作为参数自适应随机模型预测控制的输入;在设计的参数自适应随机模型预测控制优化框架下,计及延长系统设备生命周期的目标进行优化。针对随机模型预测控制在优化过程中预测时域和控制时域固定不变的缺陷,提出参数自适应方法以获取更好的优化效果。结果表明:在优化系统功率平衡方面,所提控制策略相较于随机模型预测控制提高了6.25百分点;在减少可控设备大功率运行方面,所提策略相较于常规模型预测控制降低了60%,验证了所提策略能够有效解决风光氢耦合系统源荷两侧的不确定性。A parameter adaptive stochastic model prediction control(PASMPC)power regulation strategy was proposed based on scenario analysis method,aiming at the impact of uncertainty on the power balance of the wind-solar-hydrogen coupling system on both the source and load sides.A linear discrete state-space model was established to describe its dynamic characteristics,based on the energy supply architecture of the wind-solar-hydrogen coupling system.Then,the scenario analysis method was used to describe the uncertainty of the system as input for the PASMPC.Under the framework of the designed PASMPC,the goal of extending the life cycle of the system equipment was taken into consideration for optimization.To compensate for the defects of fixed time domain prediction and control time domain instochastic model prediction control during optimization process,a parameter adaptive method was proposed to obtain better optimization control effect.Results show that the PASMPC strategy improves the system power balance by 6.25 percentage compared with the stochastic model prediction control.Compared with the conventional model predictive control,the high-power operation of the system-controllable equipment is reduced by 60%,which verifies that the proposed strategy can effectively solve the uncertainty on both sides of the source and load of the wind-solar-hydrogen coupling system.

关 键 词：风光氢耦合系统 随机模型预测控制 场景分析 不确定性 参数自适应 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]