基于情景构建的超大型城市地震应急任务研究  

Research on Super-large Urban Earthquake Emergency Response Based on Scenario Construction

作　　者：刘青云 王慧彦[1] 王建飞 李强 Liu Qingyun;Wang Huiyan;Wang Jianfei;Li Qiang(Institute of Disaster Prevention,Sanhe 065201,Hebei,China;China Fire and Rescue College,Beijing 102202,China;National Institute of Natural Hazards,Ministry of Emergency Management,Beijing 100085,China)

机构地区：[1]防灾科技学院,河北三河065201 [2]中国消防救援学院,北京102202 [3]应急管理部国家自然灾害防治研究院,北京100085

出　　处：《中国地震》2024年第2期326-335,共10页Earthquake Research in China

基　　金：国家社会科学基金(19BGL243);中央高校基本科研业务费研究生科技创新基金(ZY20230335)共同资助。

摘　　要：如何提高超大型城市地震巨灾应对能力,是我国现阶段地震应急研究的重要内容。在微观分析情景要素及其相互作用的基础上,利用知识元模型构建震害情景。为解决地震巨灾情景中信息的不确定性问题,建立模糊规则来匹配不确定信息,判断情景推演的结果及可能性。最后进行案例分析,将震后情景划分为5个应急响应阶段,通过情景推演实现地震巨灾应急任务的生成,验证了该研究方法的科学性和实用性,同时也为应急能力评估提供参考。Enhancing earthquake disaster response capacity in super-large cities constitutes a significant aspect of current earthquake emergency research in China.Utilizing a relative microscopic analysis of scenario elements and their interactions,we establish a scenario model based on a knowledge meta-model.To address the uncertainty inherent in earthquake catastrophe scenario deduction,we establish fuzzy rules through interactions between knowledge elements.These rules facilitate matching uncertain scenario information with fuzzy rules,enabling the assessment of scenario deduction outcomes and possibilities.Subsequently,through case analysis,we categorize post-earthquake scenarios into five emergency response stages.The generation of earthquake catastrophe emergency tasks is achieved through scenario deduction,thereby validating the scientific base and practicality of our research method.Moreover,this approach provides valuable insights for emergency capability assessment,contributing to the enhancement of earthquake disaster response capacity.

关 键 词：超大型城市 地震巨灾情景构建 模糊规则 情景推演 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]