阿富汗地震R/S分形特征及地震活动性分析  

R/S Fractal Characteristics and Activity Analysis of Afghanistan Earthquake

作　　者：尚志 李己华 张璐 申利远 刘婷婷 孙茂妤 王苹 黄淑芬 李静 Shang Zhi;Li Jihua;Zhang Lu;Shen Liyuan;Liu Tingting;Sun Maoyu;Wang Ping;Huang Shufen;Li Jing(China Fire and Rescue Institute,Beijing 102202,China)

机构地区：[1]中国消防救援学院,北京102202

出　　处：《中国地震》2024年第2期447-457,共11页Earthquake Research in China

基　　金：应急管理部救援协调和预案管理局项目(2023)资助。

摘　　要：地震的发生具有非线性特征,分形理论能够刻画地震时空分布特征及其变化过程。本文基于R/S分析方法确定阿富汗主要地震带的分形特征,利用ARIMA模型对兴都—库什山地震带可能发生的年度最大震级进行预测。R/S分析表明,兴都—库什山地震带Hurst指数为0.9125,地震活动记忆周期为8年;苏莱曼山地震带Hurst指数为0.7281,地震活动记忆周期为9年。兴都—库什山和苏莱曼山地震带地震活动的变化趋势与历史变化一致,且兴都—库什山地震带的趋势延续性比苏莱曼山地震带更为显著。ARIMA模型预测结果显示,2022—2026年兴都—库什山地震带可能发生的年度最大震级分别为M_(b)6.2、M_(b)6.1、M_(b)5.8、M_(b)5.8和M_(b)6.1。Earthquake occurrence exhibits nonlinear characteristics,and fractal theory effectively describes the temporal and spatial distribution and evolution of earthquakes.Using R/S analysis,this paper determines the fractal characteristics of the major seismic belts in Afghanistan and employs the ARIMA model to predict the annual maximum magnitude of the Hindu-Kush seismic belt.The Hurst index of the Hindu-Kush seismic belt is 0.9125,indicating a seismic activity memory period of 8 years.For the Sulaiman seismic belt,the Hurst index is 0.7281,with a memory period of 9 years.The variation trends of seismic activity in both the Hindu-Kush and Sulaiman seismic zones align with historical patterns,though the trend continuity is more pronounced in the Hindu-Kush zone.According to the ARIMA model,the predicted maximum annual magnitudes for the Hindu-Kush seismic belt from 2022 to 2026 are M_(b)6.2,M_(b)6.1,M_(b)5.8,M_(b)5.8,and M_(b)6.1,respectively.

关 键 词：阿富汗地震 R/S分形 HURST指数 ARIMA模型 地震活动性分析 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]