基于复杂网络的高速公路交通事故风险动态演化模型  

Dynamic evolution model of freeway traffic accident risk based on complex network

作　　者：唐智慧[1,2] 黄镜入 张南[1,2] TANG Zhihui;HUANG Jingru;and ZHANG Nan(School of Transportation and Logistics,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 610031,Sichuan Province,P.R.China;National Engineering Laboratory of Integrated Transportation Big Data Application Technology,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 610031,Sichuan Province,P.R.China)

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院,四川成都610031 [2]西南交通大学综合交通大数据应用技术国家工程实验室,四川成都610031

出　　处：《深圳大学学报（理工版）》2024年第4期433-443,共11页Journal of Shenzhen University(Science and Engineering)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(61873216)。

摘　　要：为有效挖掘高速公路交通事故规律信息,基于复杂网络理论提出高速公路交通事故致因网络构建方法.从风险结构与风险模式两方面定义风险传播机制,通过高速公路交通事故致因网络与风险传播机制的有机结合,建立了高速公路交通事故风险演化模型.以高速公路重特大交通事故为例,对201份高速公路重特大交通事故调查报告进行风险分析.结果表明,基于复杂网络的风险演化模型适用于高速公路的交通事故风险分析;通过高速公路交通事故风险演化模型可对各致因的风险传播特性进行解析与归类,从而制定出针对不同情形致因的控制策略,为高速公路交通事故风险演化研究提供新思路.To effectively excavate the patterns in freeway traffic accidents,we propose a method for constructing a freeway traffic accident cause network based on complex network theory.We define the risk propagation mechanism from two aspects:risk structure and risk patterns,and integrate the freeway traffic accident cause network with these mechanisms to establish an evolution model for freeway traffic accident risk.Using data from 201 investigation reports of major highway traffic accidents as examples,risk analysis is conducted.The results show that the risk evolution model based on complex networks is applicable for analyzing freeway traffic accident risks.The model allows the analysis and classification of risk propagation characteristics of each causation factor,enabling the formulation of targeted control strategies.This paper provides a new approach for studying the evolution of freeway traffic accident risk.

关 键 词：交通运输规划与管理 风险动态演化 复杂网络 风险传播机制 交通安全 高速公路 

分 类 号：U491.31[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]