安庆市工业能源消费碳排放影响因素分析与趋势预测  

Analysis and Prediction of Carbon Emission from Industrial Energy Consumption in Anqing

作　　者：李明 薛峰 张婧 戚乐乐 倪翔 赵宽 周葆华 LI Ming;XUE Feng;ZHANG Jing;QI Lele;NI Xiang;ZHAO Kuan;ZHOU Baohua(School of Resources and Environment,Anqing Normal University,Anqing 246133,China)

机构地区：[1]安庆师范大学资源环境学院,安徽安庆246133

出　　处：《安庆师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第2期1-9,25,共10页Journal of Anqing Normal University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(41907334);安徽省自然科学基金青年项目(1908085QD163)。

摘　　要：基于排放因子法对2010—2021年安庆市工业能源消费碳排放量进行核算,同时运用LMDI和STIRPAT模型对碳排放影响因素进行分解识别,并定量分析了影响因素对碳排放的贡献程度,最终通过设置情景分析,得到了不同发展情景下安庆市2022—2035年的工业能源消费碳排放情况。结果显示,2010—2021年安庆市工业能源消费碳排放整体呈上升趋势,累计增长9.257×10^(6)吨,其中2021年碳排放量为2.102×10^(7)吨;人均产出和从业人口效应是促使碳排放增加的主要因素,而能源强度效应是主要的排放抑制因素,且能源结构效应对碳排放的抑制作用有限。情景分析表明,在基准情景中安庆市工业将难以在2030年前实现碳达峰目标,但是通过合理调控人均产出、能源消费强度、碳排放强度均能有效控制碳排放并实现碳达峰。此外,在高碳排放强度下降率、高能源消费强度下降率的情景中,安庆市工业行业可在不影响工业经济增长的情形下于2030年前完成碳达峰目标,且达峰碳排放量预测值为2.341×10^(7)吨。Carbon emissions from industrial energy consumption in Anqing from 2010 to 2021 were calculated using the emission factor method.The LMDI and STIRPAT models were employed to identify and analyze the contributing factors of carbon emissions and quantify the degree of their contribution to carbon emissions.Additionally,through scenario analysis,carbon emissions from industrial energy consumption in Anqing for the period from 2022 to 2035 were projected under different development scenarios.The results reveal a general upward trend in carbon emissions,amounting to a total increase of 9.257 million tons over the 2010—2021 period,culminating in 21.02 million tons in 2021.Notably,the effects of per capita output and employment population emerged as the primary factors driving the increase in carbon emissions,while the impact of energy intensity played a significant role in reducing emissions.The impact of energy structure on carbon emissions growth is limited.Scenario analysis suggests that,under the benchmark scenario,Anqing’s industry may encounter challenges in achieving its pre-2030 peak carbon dioxide emissions target.Reasonable regulation of per capita output,energy consumption intensity,or carbon emission intensity can effectively control carbon emissions and achieve carbon peaking on time.In the scenario characterized by a high rate of decline in carbon emission intensity and high energy consumption intensity decline rate,Anqing's industrial sector has the potential to reach the peak carbon dioxide emissions target before 2030 without negatively impacting industrial economic growth.The projected value for peak carbon emissions in this scenario is 23.41 million tons.

关 键 词：工业碳排放 LMDI模型 STIRPAT模型 碳排放预测 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]