慢性胰腺炎并发区域性门静脉高压的影响因素及预测模型的构建  

Influencing factors for chronic pancreatitis complicated by pancreatogenic portal hypertension and establishment of a predictive model

作　　者：杨佳妮 马志妮 胡应霞 李宗帅 刘妍 张海蓉[1] 缪应雷[1] YANG Jiani;MA Zhini;HU Yingxia;LI Zongshuai;LIU Yan;ZHANG Hairong;MIAO Yinglei(Department of Gastroenterology,The First Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University,Yunnan Province Clinical Research Center for Digestive Diseases,Kunming 650032,China;Department of Gastroenterology,Chuxiong Yi Autonomous Prefecture People’s Hospital,Chuxiong,Yunnan 675000,China;Department of Gastroenterology,Wenshan People’s Hospital,Wenshan,Yunnan 663000,China;Department of Gastroenterology,Puer People’s Hospital,Puer,Yunnan 665000,China)

机构地区：[1]昆明医科大学第一附属医院消化内科,云南省消化系统疾病临床医学研究中心,昆明650032 [2]楚雄彝族自治州人民医院消化内科,云南楚雄675000 [3]文山州人民医院消化内科,云南文山663000 [4]普洱市人民医院消化内科,云南普洱665000

出　　处：《临床肝胆病杂志》2024年第7期1438-1445,共8页Journal of Clinical Hepatology

基　　金：云南省科技计划项目(202102AA100062)。

摘　　要：目的探讨慢性胰腺炎(CP)并发区域性门静脉高压(PPH)的影响因素,并构建预测模型。方法回顾性分析2017年1月—2022年12月于昆明医科大学第一附属医院及楚雄彝族自治州人民医院、文山州人民医院、普洱市人民医院99例CP并发PPH(PPH组)住院患者的临床资料。采取发病率密度抽样法抽取198例CP患者作为对照组(非PPH组)。符合正态分布的计量资料两组间比较采用成组t检验;不符合正态分布的计量资料两组间比较采用Mann-Whitney U检验。计数资料两组间比较采用χ^(2)检验或Fisher精确概率法。采用Lasso回归模型对CP并发PPH潜在的预测因子进行筛选,将筛选后的预测因子纳入多因素Logistic回归分析,筛选出独立危险因素,构建列线图;采用受试者工作特征曲线、校准曲线及HosmerLemeshow拟合优度检验对模型进行内部验证;采用临床决策曲线评估模型的临床实用性。结果2组间性别、急性胰腺炎反复发作史、CP急性发作、胆管结石、胰周液体积聚、假性囊肿、肺部感染、C反应蛋白(CRP)升高占比、降钙素原升高占比、纤维蛋白原(FIB)、中性粒细胞与淋巴细胞比值(NLR)、GGT、TBil、DBil、低密度脂蛋白(LDL)、血清淀粉酶、D-二聚体、血清白蛋白比较差异均有统计学意义(P值均<0.05)。Lasso回归筛选的预测变量包括性别、急性胰腺炎反复发作、胆管结石、胰周液体积聚、肺部感染、假性囊肿、CRP、NLR、FIB、LDL。多因素Logistic回归分析显示,性别、急性胰腺炎反复发作、胰周液体积聚、假性囊肿、FIB是CP并发PPH的独立危险因素(OR值分别为2.716、2.138、2.297、2.805、1.313,P值均<0.05)。将上述因素进行模型拟合,经bootstrap内部验证列线图模型曲线下面积为0.787(95%CI:0.730~0.844),且校准曲线接近参考曲线,Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验表明该模型具有良好的拟合度(χ^(2)=7.469,P=0.487)。临床决策曲线分析显示预Objective To investigate the influencing factors for chronic pancreatitis(CP)complicated by pancreatogenic portal hypertension(PPH),and to establish a predictive model.Methods A retrospective analysis was performed for the clinical data of 99 patients with CP complicated by PPH who were hospitalized in The First Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University,Chuxiong Yi Autonomous Prefecture People’s Hospital,Wenshan People’s Hospital,and Puer People’s Hospital from January 2017 to December 2022,and these patients were enrolled as PPH group.The incidence density sampling method was used to select 198 CP patients from databases as control group.The independent-samples t test was used for comparison of normally distributed continuous data between two groups,and the Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison of non-normally distributed continuous data between two groups;the chi-square test or the Fisher’s exact test was used for comparison of categorical data between two groups.The Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator(LASSO)regression model was used to identify the potential predictive factors for CP complicated by PPH,and the predictive factors obtained were included in the multivariate Logistic regression analysis to obtain independent risk factors,which were used to establish a nomogram prediction model.The receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve,the calibration curve,and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test were used to perform internal validation of the model,and the clinical decision curve was used to assess the clinical practicability of the model.Results There were significant differences between the two groups in sex,history of recurrent acute pancreatitis attacks,acute exacerbation of CP,bile duct stones,peripancreatic fluid accumulation,pseudocysts,pulmonary infection,elevated C-reactive protein(CRP),elevated procalcitonin,fibrinogen(FIB),neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio(NLR),gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase,total bilirubin,direct bilirubin,low-density lipoprotein(LDL),serum amylase

关 键 词：胰腺炎 慢性 区域性门脉高压 危险因素 

分 类 号：R576[医药卫生—消化系统]