脆弱性与自然灾害灾情分析——以2011—2020年广东省为例  

Vulnerability and Natural Disaster Loss Analysis——Taking Guangdong Province from 2011 to 2020 as an Example

作　　者：袁定欢 罗钧悦 郭君 陈安滢 林文亿 YUAN Dinghuan;LUO Junyue;GUO Jun;CHEN Anying;LIN Wenyi(School of Public Administration and Emergency Management,Jinan University,Guangzhou 510632,China)

机构地区：[1]暨南大学公共管理学院/应急管理学院,广东广州510632

出　　处：《灾害学》2024年第3期94-101,共8页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“城中村改造引发社会安全事件的机理与应急管理研究”(72104090);广东省基础与应用基础研究基金项目“灾害预警如何影响公众应对行为:作用机制和策略优化”(2022A1515110347);广东省自然科学基金区域联合基金-青年基金项目“粤港澳大湾区重大公共危机事件中视频类网络舆情传播机理及引导策略研究”(2020A1515110650);广东省哲学社会科学规划项目“基于公众风险感知的灾害预警信息发布策略研究”(GD23YGL36)。

摘　　要：加强脆弱性和自然灾害的灾情评估对实现国家应急减灾目标具有重要的促进作用。该文基于地方灾害脆弱性模型,揭示广东省近10年脆弱性与自然灾害灾情的时空分布特征。发现广东省社会脆弱性指数在2011—2013年呈波动上升的状态,而在2014年后总体呈现波动下降的趋势,并于2020年达到研究期内最小值。空间分布来看,东莞、深圳和汕头市的社会脆弱性指数一直处于较高水平,珠三角和潮汕地区为人口脆弱性较高的地区,广州、深圳和珠海市的经济脆弱性一直为较低水平,清远和梅州市的社会建设脆弱性常年较低;广东省绝对灾情指数在2011—2013年呈现较快的上升趋势,但此后逐年稳步下降。相关性分析验证了自然灾害灾情受自然脆弱性与社会脆弱性的共同影响,研究结果可以位政府采取相应的措施减少自然灾害损失提供依据。Strengthening vulnerability and natural disaster assessment plays an important role in contributing to the realization of national emergency disaster reduction goals.Based on the hazards-of-place model of vulnerabil⁃ity,the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of vulnerability and natural disaster situations in Guang⁃dong Province from 2011 to 2020 are revealed.The results show that the social vulnerability index has a fluctuating upward trend from 2011 to 2014,while an overall fluctuating downward trend after 2014,and reaches the mini⁃mum value of the whole study period in 2020.In terms of spatial distribution,the social vulnerability index of Dongguan,Shenzhen and Shantou has been at a high level,with the Pearl River Delta and Chaoshan regions being the regions with high population vulnerability,the economic vulnerability of Guangzhou,Shenzhen and Zhuhai has been kept at a low level,and the vulnerability of Qingyuan and Meizhou cities in terms of social con⁃struction has been perennially low.The absolute disaster index of Guangdong Province shows a relatively rapid up⁃ward trend from 2011 to 2013,but has been steadily declining year by year since then.The correlation analysis ver⁃ifies that natural disaster losses are jointly affected by natural vulnerability and social vulnerability.The research re⁃sults can inspire the government to take corresponding measures to reduce losses caused by natural disasters.

关 键 词：自然灾害 社会脆弱性 自然脆弱性 地方脆弱性 灾害损失 地方灾害脆弱性模型 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] X915.5