郑州“7·20”地铁水淹事件STAMP致因分析  

STAMP-Based Causal Analysis of the Zhengzhou "7·20" Metro Submergence Incident

作　　者：陈述[1,2] 温炼烽 王建平[2] 罗立哲 CHEN Shu;WEN Lianfeng;WANG Jianping;LUO Lizhe(College of Economic and Management,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,China;College of Economic and Managemont,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,China;Changjiang Survey,Plan-ning,Design and Research Co.,Ltd.,Wuhan 430010,China)

机构地区：[1]三峡大学水电工程施工与管理重点实验室,湖北宜昌443002 [2]三峡大学经济与管理学院,湖北宜昌443002 [3]长江勘测规划设计研究有限责任公司,湖北武汉430010

出　　处：《灾害学》2024年第3期110-115,共6页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金“面向多风环境的大坝浇筑交叉作业空间冲突智能调控机制”(52079073)。

摘　　要：为探讨河南郑州“7·20”地铁5号线伤亡事件致因,综合运用系统理论事件模型与过程(STAMP)模型,分析5号线伤亡事件安全控制结构,据此逐级辨识事件致因;基于复杂网络理论将事件致因及其联系抽象为网络的节点和边,建立地铁水灾事件网络;计算聚类系数、度数等拓扑参数定量分析事件致因性质,确定关键致因。结果表明:地方党委政府面对汛情的应对部署不紧不实,缺少有效的组织动员和有关部门对工程建设存在失管失察是事件的深层根源;建设单位、设计单位等五方主体单位及运维单位的主体责任失职是事件的主观关键致因;应从政府及有关部门、五方主体单位和运维单位方面采取多元协同的风险防控措施。To delve into the causative factors behind the casualties in the"7·20"subway Line 5 accident in Zhengzhou,Henan,a comprehensive analysis is conducted by employing the system-theoretic accident model and pro⁃cesses(STAMP)model.This approach enable us to dissect the safety control structure of the incident systematically and progressively identify the contributing factors.The causal factors and their logical relationships into nodes and edges with⁃in a complex network are transformed,thereby establishing the topological structure of the accident network.Utilizing quantitative metrics such as average path length,clustering coefficient,degree centrality,and betweenness centrality,the characteristics of these causal factors,ultimately pinpointing the critical influencing factors are quantitatively ana⁃lyzed.Our results demonstrate that the fundamental root causes of the accident lie in the inadequate and unresponsive flood response measures are undertaken by the local party committee and government.Furthermore,there is a glaring lack of effective organizational mobilization,coupled with a failure of relevant departments to exercise proper oversight during the construction phase.On the subjective front,the primary entities involved,including the construction unit,design unit,and maintenance unit,exhibited a dereliction of their core responsibilities,constituting the principal con⁃tributing factors to the accident.As a solution,the implementation of a multifaceted,collaborative risk prevention and control strategy involving government bodies,pertinent departments,the key stakeholders,and the maintenance unit is recommended.

关 键 词：地铁水淹事件 公共安全 致因分析 STAMP模型 复杂网络 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] X915.5