河南省社区居民洪涝灾害风险感知引导策略仿真研究  

Simulation of Flood Hazard Risk Perception Guidance Strategy for Community Residents in Henan Province

作　　者：徐瑞华 罗帆[2] 张攀科[3] 郭昕曜 胡照成 XU Ruihua;LUO Fan;ZHANG Panke;GUO Xinyao;HU Zhaocheng(School of Business,Henan University of Engineering,Zhengzhou 451191,China;School of Management,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430070,China;School of Business,Henan University of Science and Technology,Luoyangg 471023,China;School of Civil Aviation,Zhengzhou University of Aeronautics,Zheng-zhou 450046,China)

机构地区：[1]河南工程学院商学院,河南郑州451191 [2]武汉理工大学管理学院,湖北武汉430070 [3]河南科技大学商学院,河南洛阳471023 [4]郑州航空工业管理学院民航学院,河南郑州450046

出　　处：《灾害学》2024年第3期125-131,共7页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：河南省哲学社会科学规划年度项目“河南省社区居民灾害风险感知的形成机理及引导策略研究”(2022CSH031)阶段性成果;河南工程学院博士培育基金项目(D2022035);河南工程学院科研项目协同育人专项(2022XT-2022SS012);国家自然科学基金项目(72304253);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(22YJC630027)。

摘　　要：有效引导社区居民的灾害风险感知,对降低城市灾害损失至关重要。根据收集的社区居民洪涝灾害风险感知的影响因素之间的因果关系,采用系统动力学构建了社区居民洪涝灾害风险感知引导系统模型,仿真分析了不同感知引导策略下社区居民洪涝灾害风险感知的变化趋势。研究表明,感知引导策略、环境因素、个体因素与灾害风险感知相互影响,形成了一个不断反馈的过程;按影响从大到小排列前三的引导策略依次为风险沟通、灾害宣传教育、灾害预警预报。采用系统动力学构建社区居民洪涝灾害风险感知引导系统模型,能够仿真分析引导策略的有效性,为防灾减灾政策的实施提供理论依据。It is important to effectively guide the disaster risk perception of community residents to reduce urban disaster losses.Based on the causal relationship between the factors affecting the community residents’flood disaster risk perception and the perception guidance strategy,a community resident’s flood disaster risk perception guidance system model is constructed by using system dynamics.The change trend of flood disaster risk perception of community residents under different perception guidance strategies is analyzed by simulation.The re⁃sults show that the perception guidance strategy,environmental factors,individual factors and disaster risk per⁃ception interact with each other,forming a continuous feedback process.The top three guiding strategies in order of influence from large to small are risk communication,disaster publicity and education,and disaster early warn⁃ing and forecasting.By using system dynamics a community flood risk perception and guidance system model is built.can simulate and analyze the effectiveness of guidance strategies,and provide a theoretical basis for the im⁃plementation of disaster prevention and reduction policies.

关 键 词：洪涝灾害 风险感知 社区居民 引导策略 系统动力学 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] X915.5