1981—2018年吉林省玉米水分盈亏及旱涝时空分布  

Temporal and Spatial Distribution of Maize Water Profit and Loss,Drought and Flood in Jilin Province from 1981 to 2018

作　　者：杨静 张峰 赵春莉[2] 李明堂[1] 张继权[3] 郝鹏飞 陈晓玲 YANG Jing;ZHANG Feng;ZHAO Chunli;LI Mingtang;ZHANG Jiquan;HAO Pengfei;CHEN Xiaoling(School of Resources and Environment,Jilin Agricultural University,Changchun 130117,China;College of Forestry and Grassland,Jilin Agricultural University,Changchun 130117,China;School of Environment,Northeast Normal University,Changchun 130117,China;Jilin Geological Environment Monitoring Center(Jilin Geological Disaster Emergency Technical Guidance Center),Changchun 130021,China;Institute of Jilin Science and Technology Inovation,Changchun 130052,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林农业大学资源与环境学院,吉林长春130117 [2]吉林农业大学林学与草学学院,吉林长春130117 [3]东北师范大学环境学院,吉林长春130117 [4]吉林省地质环境监测总站(吉林省地质灾害应急技术指导中心),吉林长春130021 [5]吉林省科技创新研究院,吉林长春130052

出　　处：《灾害学》2024年第3期195-202,共8页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：吉林省科技发展计划项目“基于遥感指数的吉林省玉米水分胁迫监测及风险预警技术研究”(20210203150 SF);国家自然科学基金“农作物旱涝胁迫机制、快速判识与风险预警研究-以吉林省春玉米为例”(42077443);国家自然科学联合基金项目“松辽玉米帯多灾种气象灾害风险预警预估及适应对策体系研究”(U21A2040);吉林省重大科技专项课题“区域生态产业优化布局与智慧决策支持平台”(20230303009 SF);吉林省产学研协同创新项目“基于空天地一体化的多灾种综合风险预警和“情景-应对”型应急智慧决策技术与产品研制”(YDZJ202303CGZH023)。

摘　　要：吉林省作为我国玉米主产区和重要的商品粮基地,明确吉林省玉米水分盈亏指数及旱涝灾害的时空分布特征,有助于提高农业生产的稳定性和抗灾能力。该文采用吉林省逐日气象站点数据,通过计算月尺度下的潜在蒸散量,构建水分盈亏指数来分析吉林省潜在蒸散量和旱涝灾害的时空分布特征,运用趋势分析法和小波分析法来探究水分盈亏指数的趋势性及周期性变化。结果表明:多年平均潜在蒸散量和各月份平均潜在蒸散量均有由西北至东南逐渐递减的趋势,5—9月潜在蒸散量分别占生长周期内总平均潜在蒸散量的26.3%、24.5%、21.1%、16.8%和11.3%。5月和9月发生中旱及以上频率大于50%的地区主要位于白城市西部,四平市西部和长春市中部地区。8月和9月中涝及以上频率高值区位于吉林省东部及东南部地区。Jilin Province is a corn producing area and an important commodity grain base in china.Clarifying the profit and loss index of corn moisture and the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of drought and flood disasters in Jilin province can help improve the stability and disaster resistance of agricultural production.The daily meteorological station data of Jilin Province is used to calculate the potential evapotranspiration on a monthly scale,a water profit and loss index is constructed to analyze the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of poten⁃tial evapotra-nspiration and drought and flood disasters in Jilin Province,and trend analysis and wavelet analysis is used to explore the trend and cyclical changes of water profit and loss index.The results show that the m-ulti year average potential evapotranspiration and the average monthly potential evapotranspiration gradua-lly decreased from northwest to southeast,and the potential evapotranspiration from May to September a-ccounted for 26.3%,24.5%,21.1%,16.8%and 11.3%of the total average potential evapotranspiration in the growth cycle,respec⁃tively.In May and September,the areas with moderate drought and above freq-uency greater than 50%were main⁃ly located in the western part of Baicheng City,the western part of Siping City and the central part of Changchun City.The areas with high frequency of moderate flood and above in August and September are located in the eastern and southeastern parts of Jilin Province.

关 键 词：水分盈亏指数 月尺度 潜在蒸散量 旱涝灾害时空分布 玉米 吉林 

分 类 号：S166[农业科学—农业气象学] X43[农业科学—农业基础科学] X915.5[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]