智慧应急赋能城市减灾:演化博弈与阶段嬗变  

Smart Emergency Enabling Urban Disaster Mitigation:Evolutionary Game and Stage Transformation

作　　者：闫绪娴[1] 刘杨 范玲 王俊丽 荆树伟[1] 孔锋 YAN Xuxian;LIU Yang;FAN Ling;WANG Junli;JING Shuwei;KONG Feng(School of Management Science and Engineering,Shanxi University of Finance and Economics,Shanxi 030006,China;School of Economics and Management,Shanxi Normal University,Taiyuan 030000,China;College of Humanities and Development Studies,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]山西财经大学管理科学与工程学院,山西太原030006 [2]山西师范大学工商管理学院,山西太原030000 [3]中国农业大学人文与发展学院,北京100083

出　　处：《灾害学》2024年第3期203-213,共11页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家社科学基金一般项目“我国城市暴雨内涝灾害形成机理、韧性评估与防治对策研究”(20BGL260);山西省研究生创新项目“自然灾害应急协同效能提升的多重困境与实践路径一基于暴雨灾害的双案例分析”(2023KY491)。

摘　　要：智慧应急为城市减灾治理现代化转型与应急管理系统智能化改造升级提供了新的契机与机遇。该文考虑这一过程中政府、企业与公众三方主体间的合作博弈关系,构建了政府引领、企业研发、公众参与的演化博弈模型。应用数值仿真模拟技术对该模型收敛于理想“合作”的均衡状态进行了实证分析,发现智慧应急赋能城市减灾过程涌现出“信息化”“智能化”“智慧化”三个阶段多层并进的态势;政府作为该过程的关键驱动力量,既需要采用监管、补贴、惩罚等手段对企业研发数智应急技术进行管控,更需要开展科普宣教等活动统筹社会公众积极参与;“搭便车”行为和政企协同的收益分配情况会导致企业参与该过程的意愿出现波动;公众参与对政府引领智慧应急存在双向反馈作用。该文基于智慧应急赋能城市减灾过程中三方主体策略选择的理论阐释,应用实际算例实现了演化过程的模拟仿真,为应急管理新格局中“智慧应急大脑”的构建提供理论依据与有益启示。Smart emergency creates novel opportunities for modernizing urban disaster mitigation governance and upgrading emergency management system intelligently.The collaborative game relationship among government,enterprises,and the public is examined,constructing an evolutionary game model involving government leader⁃ship,enterprise development,and public engagement.Numerical simulation techniques are applied to empirical⁃ly analyze the convergence of the model to an ideal“cooperative”equilibrium state.It is concluede that the pro⁃cess of smart emergency for urban disaster mitigation has emerged as a multilayered progression of“informatiza⁃tion”,“intelligence”and“wisdom”.As the pivotal driving force in this process,the government must under⁃take two tasks.First,it must implement diverse control measures for the research and development of digital tech⁃nologies by enterprises,encompassing regulation,subsidies,and penalties.Second,it ought to facilitate the ac⁃tive involvement of the general public through activities like science outreach and education.“Free-rider”behav⁃iors and the distribution of benefits from government-enterprise collaboration may cause fluctuations in enterprise willingness to participate in the process.Public participation exerts a bidirectional feedback impact on governmentdriven smart emergency.Based on theoretical elucidation grounded in the strategic decisions undertaken by the three key stakeholders,the evolutionary trajectory through practical examples is simulated,offering a theoretical foundation and valuable insights for establishing the“Smart Emergency Brain”within the emerging framework of emergency management.

关 键 词：智慧应急 城市减灾 演化博弈 仿真分析 城市安全 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] X915.5