上市公司“存贷双高”异象与债务违约风险  

Are Firms Holding both High Cash and High Debt at Higher Risk of Default?

作　　者：窦超 李峥 白学锦 Dou Chao

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学商学院,100081 [2]宁波大学商学院,315211

出　　处：《会计研究》2023年第11期133-149,共17页Accounting Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(72372172);中央财经大学“青年英才”计划(QYP2207)的资助。

摘　　要：在近几年屡屡爆雷的债务违约案例中,以康美、康得新为代表的“存贷双高”型企业一再引发各界的关注,时至今日,这一财务异象依旧大量存在于上市公司当中,成为当前困扰我国资本市场的一大隐患。理论上“存贷双高”型企业坐拥巨额资金,流动性充裕,但频频违约的现实却不得不引发人们的深思:究竟“存贷双高”型企业财力雄厚、实至名归还是金玉其外败絮其中?此类企业整体上是否面临着更高的债务违约风险?为研究上述问题,本文在理论分析的基础上,以2007-2021年沪深A股上市公司为研究样本进行了实证分析,从经济特征的角度系统验证了“存贷双高”现象与企业债务违约风险的关系;与此同时,以大股东股权质押比例、资金占用以及与大股东关联交易综合衡量的大股东利益侵占程度越高,“存贷双高”型企业面临的债务违约风险更高;以经济政策不确定性和货币政策是否紧缩为代表的外部经营环境越差,“存贷双高”型企业面临的债务违约风险更高。进一步的分析还表明,较低的股权集中度、较高的投资者保护程度以及较低的信息不对称有助于缓解“存贷双高”型企业的债务违约风险。上述结果说明,“存贷双高”型企业很可能虚有其表,背后与大股东掏空、企业本身经营不佳密切相关,因此投资者、监管机构等需要对其予以足够重视,跳出传统财务分析的范畴对这一异象进行理解与警惕。In recent years,debt defaults have occurred frequently,and some defaulters are even enterprises with both high cash and high debt.It's incredible because their huge monetary capital should be enough to cover the maturing debt.Is it very possible that the financial phenomenon of holding both high cash and high debt is an illusion?Do these enterprises generally have a higher risk of default?In order to study the above problems,this paper first makes the theoretical analysis,and then takes A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange from 2007 to 2021 as a sample for empirical tests.It is found that firms holding both high cash and high debt are at higher risk of default,in line with the expectation.At the same time,the relationship is stronger when the firm suffers from more tunneling of the largest shareholder,measured by equity pledge ratio,capital occupation and relat-ed party transactions with the largest shareholder,and is in a worse business environment,represented by economic policy uncertainty and whether the mo-netary policy is tight.Further analysis shows that lower concentration of equity,higher degree of investor protection and lower information asymmetry con-tribute to alleviate the positive relationship between the special phenomenon and default risk.The above results indicate that firms holding both high cash and high debt are very likely to appear better than it is,and investors and regulators need to pay enough attention to them.

关 键 词：存贷双高 违约风险 大股东掏空 财务造假 

分 类 号：F275[经济管理—企业管理] F832.51[经济管理—国民经济]