基于Join Point及时间序列的2018—2022年梧州市其他感染性腹泻流行特征及趋势分析  

Epidemiological characteristics and trend analysis of other infectious diarrhea in Wuzhou city based on JoinPoint and time series,2018-2022

作　　者：曹刘芳 潘燕兰 黄浩 CAO Liufang;PAN Yanlan;HUANG Hao(Guilin Medical College,Guilin,Guangxi 541000,China;Wuzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Wuzhou,Guangxi 543002,China)

机构地区：[1]桂林医学院公共卫生学院,广西桂林541000 [2]梧州市疾病预防控制中心,广西梧州543002

出　　处：《应用预防医学》2024年第3期154-160,共7页Applied Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：目的了解2018—2022年广西梧州市其他感染性腹泻的流行特征,探讨传播趋势变化,预测短期发病情况,为疾病防控工作提供依据。方法收集整理2018—2022年梧州市各级医疗卫生机构在“疾病监测信息报告管理系统”中报告的其他感染性腹泻的数据,使用描述性流行病学方法进行分析;采用JoinPoint回归分析对2018—2022年梧州市其他感染性腹泻发病率变化趋势进行分析。运用SPSS 19.0软件建立简单季节性指数模型预测2023年梧州市其他感染性腹泻发病趋势。结果2018—2022年梧州市其他感染性腹泻共报告发病41411例,死亡1例,年平均发病率为279.55/10万,男、女性别比为1.27∶1,男、女发病率差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=19.499,P<0.001);其他感染性腹泻主要发病年龄为0~<1岁及1~<10岁年龄组,职业分布以散居儿童为主,占报告病例总数的51.94%,但散居儿童构成比逐年下降,学生构成比逐年上升。龙圩区、长洲区和万秀区是发病的热点地区。JoinPoint回归分析显示,2018—2022年梧州市其他感染性腹泻发病率呈现下降趋势,平均月度变化百分比下降2.11%(95%CI:-6.00%~1.95%,P=0.304),散居儿童的构成比呈现下降趋势,年度变化百分比下降8.30%(95%CI:-11.94%~-4.50%,P=0.006);学生的构成比呈现上升趋势,年度变化百分比上升17.43%(95%CI:7.27%-28.56%,P=0.011),长洲区的发病率呈下降趋势,年度变化百分比下降15.60%(95%CI:-24.18%~-0.82%,P=0.044)。利用简单季节性模型预测2023年1~12月梧州市其他感染性腹泻发病率分别为22.20/10万、19.06/10万、16.66/10万、9.17/10万、8.89/10万、6.82/10万、6.18/10万、7.26/10万、9.01/10万、9.44/10万、5.90/10万、10.58/10万;模型拟合效果好,可以进行相关预测。结论2018—2022年梧州市其他感染性腹泻疫情呈缓慢下降趋势,在儿童、农民及学生群体中发病风险较高,应继续开展有效的干预措施控制其他感染性腹泻的流行。Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics of other infectious diarrhea in Wuzhou city,Guangxi province,from 2018-2022,to explore changes in transmission trends,to predict short-term morbidity,and to provide a basis for prevention and control work.Methods The data on other infectious diarrhea reported by medical and health institutions at all levels in Wuzhou city in the disease surveillance information reporting management system from 2018-2022 were analyzed and organized using descriptive epidemiological methods.JoinPoint regression analysis was used to analyze the trend of changes in the incidence rate of other infectious diarrhea in Wuzhou city from 2018-2022.SPSS 19.0 software was used to establish a simple seasonal index model to predict the incidence trend of other infectious diarrhea in Wuzhou city in 2023.Results A total of 41411 cases of other infectious diarrhea and 1 death were reported in Wuzhou city from 2018 to 2022,with an average annual incidence rate of 279.55/100000.The ratio of the number of incidence cases of male to female gender was 1.27∶1,and there was a statistically significant difference in the comparison of incidence rates of male and female(χ^(2)=19.499,P<0.001).The main age of incidence of other infectious diarrhea was the age group of 0 to<1,1~<10 age group.Occupational distribution was dominated by children living at home,accounting for 51.94%of the total number of reported cases.However,the composition ratio of children living at home had been decreasing year by year,while the composition ratio of students increased year by year.Longxu district,Changzhou district,and Wanxiu district were the hotspots of incidence.JoinPoint regression analysis showed that the incidence rate of other infectious diarrhea in Wuzhou city showed a decreasing trend from 2018-2022,with the average monthly percent change decreased by 2.11%(95%CI:-6.00%~1.95%,P=0.304).The composition ratio of children living at home showed a decreasing trend,with the annual percentage change decreased by

关 键 词：其他感染性腹泻 流行特征 描述性分析 疾病预测 变化趋势 

分 类 号：R195.4[医药卫生—卫生统计学]