从科技创新看全球经济前景——基于长周期视角  

Analyzing the Global Economic Outlook through Technological Innovation:Based on the Long Cycle Perspective

作　　者：苏剑[1] 杨盈竹 Su Jian;Yang Yingzhu

机构地区：[1]北京大学经济学院 [2]北京物资学院外国语言与文化学院,101149

出　　处：《南方经济》2024年第7期1-11,共11页South China Journal of Economics

摘　　要：科技创新是扩大优质需求的根本方式,是驱动新一轮康波周期开启的关键力量。近年来,全球涌现了众多革命性的科技成果,包括星链系统、智能机器人、太空产业、量子计算、核聚变、室温超导等,带来生产力与生产方式的巨大变革,是未来推动全球经济持续繁荣的关键引擎。经济运行呈现周期性波动,根据周期长短可以划分为短周期、中周期和长周期,短周期主要受供给和需求影响,而长周期则依赖于创新驱动。因此,尽管短期内全球经济面临下行压力,但长期看全球经济将逐步进入新的经济长周期。新质生产力是生产力的高级形态,明确了新科技革命和产业变革的发展方向,培育新质生产力就是引导中国经济进入长周期,是经济高质量发展的必然要求。当前中国在新能源技术、人工智能技术和量子计算技术等领域已经取得显著优势,需要抓住本轮科技革命机遇加快培育新质生产力,依靠科技创新,特别是颠覆性、原创性创新,着眼于新制造、新服务、新业态,打造中国经济增长新动能、新优势,以科技创新驱动经济高质量发展。Technological innovation stands as the fundamental means to expand high-quality demand and the key force driving the initiation of Kondratiev long waves.Economic operations exhibit cyclical fluctuations,which can be categorized into short cycles,medium cycles,and long cycles based on their duration.Short cycles are primarily influenced by supply and demand,while long cycles rely on innovation-driven growth.In recent years,the industrialization of new technologies is resulting in a new generation of revolutionary breakthroughs.And the global has witnessed numerous revolutionary technological achievements,giving rise to emerging consumer goods such as Starlink,space tourism,artificial intelligence,and humanoid intelligent robots.These innovations not only meet the growing demand for more advanced and intelligent products but also serve as a crucial engine propelling sustained prosperity in world's economy.Particularly notable is the excellence demonstrated by some countries in areas like Starlink systems,artificial intelligence,space industry,and quantum computing,show‐casing remarkable technological prowess that provides robust support for the future development of the economy.Although the global economy faces downward pressure in the short term,it will gradually enter a new long cycle in the long run.From the viewpoint of long-term economic cycles,sustained economic growth is predominantly driven by technological innovation.With the development of technologies like artificial intelligence,the global economy may be on the brink of entering a new phase of growth.According to the long wave theory,the current global economy is likely in the depression phase of the fifth Kondratiev wave.Historically,economic cycles'troughs often herald the beginning of the next cycle.At present,product inno‐vation and process innovation have pushed the economies of some countries into a new long cycle.China has made significant strides in fields such as new energy technologies,artificial intelligence,and quantum computing.This pap

关 键 词：高质量发展 全球经济 长周期 科技创新 新质生产力 

分 类 号：F015[经济管理—政治经济学]