跨产业“人机互补”:工业机器人应用与关联服务业就业  

Cross Industry"Human-Machine Complementarity":Industrial Robot Applications and Employment in Related Service Industries

作　　者：魏嘉辉 顾乃华 Wei Jiahui;Gu Naihua

机构地区：[1]仲恺农业工程学院经贸学院,510225 [2]暨南大学产业经济研究院

出　　处：《南方经济》2024年第7期44-69,共26页South China Journal of Economics

基　　金：广东省哲学社会科学规划青年项目“工业智能化背景下广东高质量就业的机制与对策研究”(GD23YYJ31);广东省社科联扶持省社科类社会组织课题“高质量发展背景下的广东创新链与产业链深度融合路径研究”(GD2023SKFC12)资助。

摘　　要：工业机器人应用既能通过上游“需求关联”效应和下游“成本节约”效应为服务业创造就业岗位,也能通过下游“加速标准化”效应挤出就业。通过嵌入投入产出关系建立关于服务业的关联渗透指标,发现上、下游影响整体上促进了服务业就业。机制检验发现,工业机器人上游影响伴随着工资增进,且偏向存在于生产性服务业和现代生活服务业;工业机器人的下游影响伴随着固定资产投资增加,岗位创造偏向于高技术特征的现代服务业,岗位破坏影响偏向存在于低技术特征的流通生产服务和传统生活服务。其他异质性分析发现,国有化程度因伴随着更高的社会责任而有更强的下游关联效应,但也因岗位的相对刚性而抑制上游关联效应;对外贸易有助于提高制造业嵌入生产性服务动机,促进上游关联影响,但也因投入品进口而弱化下游岗位创造;地区受教育水平对上下游关联岗位创造均有显著正向调节作用,而地区女性比例越高、非农人口占比越大,上游关联岗位创造效应越强。文章结论一定程度上回应了对“机器换人”的担忧,工业机器人应用能促进关联服务业岗位增加,有利于促进人与机器自然分工,实现跨产业“人机互补”,推动就业充分高质量发展。Industrial robot applications can create employment opportunities for the service industry through upstream"demand correlation"and downstream"cost savings"effects,and may also lead to reduce position by downstream"accelerated standardization"effect.By embedding input-output table to establish correlation penetration indicators for the service industry,it was found that the upstream and downstream effects have both overall led to an increase in employment in the service industry.Mechanism testing finds that the upstream impact of industrial robots is accompanied by an increase in wages,and tends towards the producer service industry and modern consumer service industry;The downstream influence of industrial robots is accompanied by the increase of fixed assets investment,in which post creation is biased towards modern consumer services with high-tech characteristics,and post destruction is biased towards circulation production services and traditional consumer services with low technology characteristics.Heterogeneous analysis reveals that the associative influence of industrial robot aids in balancing regional disparities and narrowing gender-based employment gaps.The degree of nationalization,owing to heightened social responsibility,is marked by more pronounced downstream associative effects.However,due to the relative rigidity of positions,it suppresses both upstream associative effects and non-associated effects.Foreign trade contributes to enhancing the incentive for manufacturing to integrate with services,thereby fostering upstream associative impacts.The conclusion of the article to some extent responds to concerns about"machine replacement".The application of industrial robots can promote the increase of associative service industry positions,facilitate the natural division of labor between humans and machines,achieve cross industry"human-machine complementarity",and promote full and high-quality employment development.

关 键 词：工业机器人 关联服务业 投入产出表 高质量就业 

分 类 号：F241[经济管理—劳动经济]