中国市域经济韧性演变与影响因素异质性  

Evolution and Influencing Factors' Heterogeneity of Urban Economic Resilience in China

作　　者：张学波 李亚宁 孙峰华[3] ZHANG Xuebo;LI Yaning;SUN Fenghua(School of Geography and Tourism,Qufu Normal University,Rizhao 276826,Shandong,China;Institute of Yellow River Ecology,Qufu Normal University,Qufu 273165,Shandong,China;Development Research Center of the Region Encircling the Bohai Sea,Ludong University,Yantai 264025,Shandong,China)

机构地区：[1]曲阜师范大学地理与旅游学院,山东日照276826 [2]曲阜师范大学黄河生态研究院,山东曲阜273165 [3]鲁东大学环渤海发展研究院,山东烟台264025

出　　处：《经济地理》2024年第5期64-74,共11页Economic Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(42071150);山东省泰山学者青年专家计划(tsqn202306183)。

摘　　要：文章以2008年全球金融危机事件为时间起点,采用核心变量法测度并分析了2008—2021年中国市域经济韧性时空格局及演变特征;同时构建地理加权回归模型,研究了中国市域经济韧性的影响因素及时空异质性。结果表明:(1)中国市域经济韧性整体呈连续升降的动态演化趋势,且在研究时段内东、中、西、东北四大地区的动态演化过程差异性显著,经济韧性整体表现为中、西部地区高,东部地区次之、东北地区较弱的空间格局。(2)中国市域经济韧性的总体差异相对较小,各区域内部之间的差异是总体差异的主要来源;从区域层面看,西部地区的差异最大,东、中部地区的差异减弱,东北地区的差异增强。(3)中国市域经济韧性在空间上呈集聚分布且集聚类型以高—高集聚和低—低集聚为主,韧性高值集聚区逐渐向西部地区转移,韧性低值集聚区范围逐渐缩小且集中分布在东北地区。(4)中国市域经济韧性的影响因素具有显著的时空异质性,产业结构、创新水平对经济韧性的正向作用显著,且影响强度呈自西向东逐渐减弱的趋势;而政府调控的正向作用和对外开放的负向作用均表现出减弱态势,各地区应根据自身实际采取差别化对策来提升经济韧性。Taking the global financial crisis in 2008 as the time starting point,this paper uses the core variable method to measure and analyze the spatio-temporal pattern and evolution characteristics of China's urban economic resilience from2008 to 2021.At the same time,a geographical weighted regression model is constructed to study the influencing factors and spatio-temporal heterogeneity of urban economic resilience in China.The results show that:1) China's urban economic resilience shows a dynamic evolution trend of continuous rise and fall,and there are significant differences in the dynamic evolution process among the eastern,central,western and northeastern regions during the study period.The overall economic resilience is high in the central and western regions,followed by the eastern region,it is weak in the northeast region.2) Overall differences in China's urban economic resilience are relatively small,and differences within regions are the main source of overall differences.From the regional level,the difference is the largest in the western region,the difference is weaker in the eastern and central regions,and the difference is stronger in the northeastern region.3) The spatial distribution of China's urban economic resilience is concentrated,and the types of agglomeration are mainly high-high agglomeration and low-low agglomeration.The agglomeration area with high resilience value is gradually transferred to the western region,while the agglomeration area with low resilience value is gradually narrowed and concentrated in the northeastern region.4) The influencing factors of China's urban economic resilience have significant spatial and temporal heterogeneity.Industrial structure and innovation level have significant positive effects on urban economic resilience,and the degree of impact is weakening from the west of China to the east of China.However,the positive effect of government regulation and the negative effect of opening to the outside world both show a weakening trend.Different regions should adopt

关 键 词：经济韧性 区域差异 地理加权回归 产业结构 创新水平 政府调控 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学] F129.9