巴黎协定下碳边境调节税的减排效应与福利影响——基于全球价值链的量化贸易模型评估  

The Emission Reduction Effects and Welfare Impact of Carbon Border Adjustment Tax in the Paris Agreement:Quantitative Trade Model Analysis Based on Global Value Chain

作　　者：彭水军[1,2] 朱治政 Peng Shuijun;Zhu Zhizheng

机构地区：[1]厦门大学经济学院,厦门361005 [2]厦门大学宏观经济研究中心,厦门361005

出　　处：《中山大学学报（社会科学版）》2024年第4期185-195,共11页Journal of Sun Yat-sen University(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“全球价值链区域化视角下RCEP的贸易和福利效应量化评估及对策研究”(22AJL011);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“开放经济条件下资源环境约束强化、技术进步与中国经济增长效率”(12JJD790027)。

摘　　要：巴黎协定下欧盟单边征收碳边境调节税违背了“共区原则”。通过构建基于全球价值链的量化贸易模型,模拟评估巴黎协定下碳边境调节税的减排效应和贸易福利影响。研究发现:欧盟单边征税与各国基于碳价差异征税均能不同程度地缓解碳泄漏问题,并将有利于欧盟、日本的福利提升;而采用成员国对非成员国征税,相比于各国互相征税具有更高的减排效率,而且相比于前两种征税方式更有利于提高美国以及中国、印度、俄罗斯等发展中国家的福利水平。美国退出巴黎协定同时显著增加了非成员国与成员国的碳排放,带来更严重的碳泄漏问题,而征收碳边境调节税会明显降低美国的福利水平。如果中国退出巴黎协定同样会加剧全球的碳泄漏,通过实施碳边境调节税可降低碳泄漏,并促使中国通过结构效应进行减排,但是会显著恶化中国的贸易条件导致福利损失。此外,进一步的全球价值链机制分析表明,全球价值链的紧密联系会显著降低全球碳排放强度和全球总排放。The unilateral imposition of carbon border adjustment tax by the European Union under the Paris Agreement violates the principle of common but differentiated responsibility.Building a quantitative trade model based on the global value chain can simulate and evaluate the emission reduction effects and trade welfare impacts of carbon border adjustment taxes under the Paris Agreement.Research has found that:Unilateral taxation by the European Union and taxation based on carbon price differences among countries can alleviate carbon leakage to varying degrees,and will be beneficial for the welfare improvement of the European Union and Japan;Using member states to tax non member states has a higher emission reduction efficiency compared to mutual taxation among countries,and is more conducive to the welfare level of the United States and developing countries such as China,India,and Russia compared to the first two taxation methods.The withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement has significantly increased the carbon emissions of non member countries and member countries,leading to more serious carbon leakage problems.The imposition of a carbon border adjustment tax will significantly reduce the welfare level of the United States.If China withdraws from the Paris Agreement,it will also exacerbate global carbon leakage.Implementing a carbon border adjustment tax can reduce carbon leakage and encourage China to reduce emissions through structural effects,but it will significantly worsen China's trade conditions and lead to welfare losses.Further analysis of the global value chain mechanism indicates that the close connection of the global value chain will significantly reduce the intensity of global carbon emissions and total global emissions.

关 键 词：巴黎协定 碳边境调节税 全球价值链 量化贸易模型 

分 类 号：F811.4[经济管理—财政学] F745[环境科学与工程—环境科学] X196