“黑天鹅”事件对上市公司价值评估的影响  

The Impact of the"Black Swan"Incident on the Value Evaluation of Listed Companies

作　　者：叶华 林继伟 纪立群 Ye Hua;Lin Jiwei;Ji Liqun

机构地区：[1]中央民族大学,北京100081 [2]北京坤元至诚资产评估有限公司,北京100089

出　　处：《中国资产评估》2024年第6期24-31,共8页Appraisal Journal of China

摘　　要：“黑天鹅”事件的发生,通常引发公司股价持续下跌、预期收益率下降,给投资者带来巨大负面影响。“黑天鹅”事件有哪些特征?如何影响公司价值评估?通过研究代表性“黑天鹅”事件对公司股价及累计超额收益率的影响,分析相关指标在事件发生后不同时间点的变化特征,并结合资产评估的基本原则,分析“黑天鹅”事件对公司价值评估可能带来的影响。研究认为,“黑天鹅”事件有其自身的特点,对公司预期收益、市场价值、风险预测三个方面产生直接影响。最后,从评估师角度分析在“黑天鹅”事件下公司价值评估需要充分关注的几个问题。研究结论有助于投资者对风险的判断并做出合理决策,有助于评估师客观分析受“黑天鹅”事件影响的公司市值波动。The"Black Swan"incident usually leads to a continuous decline in the company's stock price and expected return,which has a huge negative impact on investors.What are the characteristics of the"Black Swan"event?How does it affect the company's value evaluation?By studying the impact of representative"black swan"events on company stock prices and cumulative excess returns,and analyzing the changing characteristics of relevant indicators at different time points after the event,at the same time,combined with the basic principles of asset evaluation,analyzing the possible impact of the"Black Swan"incident on the company's value evaluation.Research suggests that the"black swan"event has its own characteristics and has a direct impact on the company's expected earnings,market value,and risk prediction.Finally,from the perspective of an appraiser,the paper analyze several issues that need to be fully addressed in the company's value evaluation under the"Black Swan"incident.The research findings are helpful for investors to assess risks and make reasonable decisions,and for evaluators to objectively analyze the market value fluctuations of companies affected by the"Black Swan"event.

关 键 词：“黑天鹅”事件 价值评估 累计超额收益率 事件研究法 

分 类 号：F270[经济管理—企业管理] F275[经济管理—国民经济]