采用三次样条函数拟合蚊媒密度概率分布及其风险评估  

Fitting Probability Distribution of Aedes Vector Density with Cubic Spline Function and its Risk Assessment

作　　者：曾四清[1] 邓惠[2] 段金花[2] 陈宗晶 芦瑞鹏 刘礼平[2] 吴军[2] Zeng Siqing;Deng Hui;Duan Jinhua(Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health,Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention(511430),Guangzhou)

机构地区：[1]广东省疾病预防控制中心、广东省公共卫生研究院,511430 [2]广东省疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《中国卫生统计》2024年第3期414-418,共5页Chinese Journal of Health Statistics

基　　金：国家重点研发计划课题(2020YFC1200102)。

摘　　要：目的研究登革热蚊媒MOI风险的概率分布,为更加科学精准开展MOI风险评估提供新方法。方法采用三次样条函数、累积概率分布和Python语言编程对广州市2016—2019年各月MOI监测数据进行拟合分析。结果本研究绘制了广州市1-12月的MOI风险评估概率分布表和分布图。1-12月各月累积概率小于0.01和0.05的MOI临界值分别在7.54~60.12、5.02~34.10之间。该临界值均在1月最低,其次是12月和2月;均在6月份最高,其次是5月和7月。1-12月各月MOI风险等级为传播、暴发和流行的概率分别在5.07%~66.60%、0.25%~36.19%、0.00%~16.80%之间。传播、暴发和流行的风险概率最低值均出现在1月,其次均在2月;最高值分别出现在7月、7月和6月,其次是6月、6月和5月。结论广州市各月的MOI风险概率分布具有显著的季节性消长规律和特征,在开展登革热蚊媒监测评估与控制工作中值得重视。三次样条函数和累积概率分布拟合法为开展MOI风险评估提供了新的分析方法。Objective To study the probability distribution of Mosquito ovitrap Index(MOI)risk of dengue Aedes vector,so as to provide a new method for more scientific and accurate MOI risk assessment.Methods Cubic spline function,cumulative probability distribution and python language programming were used to fit and analyze the MOI surveillance data of Guangzhou from 2016 to 2019 years.Results The probability distribution table and distribution figure of MOI risk assessment in Guangzhou from January to December were developed.From January to December,the MOI critical values were 7.54~60.12 and 5.05~34.10 with a cumulative probability less than 0.01 or 0.05 respectively.The critical value was the lowest in January,followed by December and February.The highest was in June,followed by May and July.From January to December,the probabilities of MOI risk grade of transmission,outbreak and epidemic were 5.07%~66.60%,0.25%~36.19%and 0.00%~16.80%respectively.The lowest risk probability of transmission,outbreak and epidemic occurred in January,followed by February respectively.The highest risk probability values appeared in July,July and June,followed by June,June and May respectively.Conclusion The probability distribution of MOI risk in each month in Guangzhou had significant seasonal growth and decline laws and characteristics,which were worthy of attention in the monitoring,evaluation and control of dengue Aedes vector.It provided a new analysis method for MOI risk assessment fitting based on cubic spline functions and cumulative probability distribution.

关 键 词：诱蚊诱卵指数 风险评估 三次样条函数 概率分布 

分 类 号：R184.31[医药卫生—流行病学]