具温度效应的草地贪夜蛾种群动力学分析和风险评估  

Population Dynamics and Risk Assessment of Spodoptera Frugiperda with Temperature Effect

作　　者：吴泽敏 赵建国 欧冠麟 祝光湖[1] WU Zemin;ZHAO Jianguo;OU Guanlin;ZHU Guanghu(School of Mathematics and Computational Sciences,Guilin University of Electronic Technology,Guilin 541004;Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health,Guangzhou 511430)

机构地区：[1]桂林电子科技大学数学与计算科学学院,桂林541004 [2]广东省公共卫生研究院,广州511430

出　　处：《工程数学学报》2024年第4期780-792,共13页Chinese Journal of Engineering Mathematics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(12171116).

摘　　要：草地贪夜蛾是从2019年开始入侵我国的一种害虫,主要以玉米和小麦等农作物为食,给农业生产造成了巨大的损失,已引起农业部门的高度重视。为揭示草地贪夜蛾的种群特征及其在我国的分布规律,首先利用一个新的常微分系统模拟该种群在不同年龄阶段的演化过程;接着利用稳定性理论求解种群再生数,并严格给出种群灭绝和持续生存的条件;最后基于带温度表达式的模型参数量化温度对草地贪夜蛾生存的影响权重,并估计其在我国各省的时空分布模式。研究发现温度对草地贪夜蛾的生长发育和迁移有重大影响,当温度低于19.6℃或者高于35.7℃时,草地贪夜蛾将会无法生存,较适宜的温度是在24~28℃之间,在24.3℃时整个物种繁殖发育最快,种群对过高或过低的温度就会越敏感,而压制整个种群数量最有效的方法是降低产卵率和加大成虫死亡率。Spodoptera frugiperda(SF)is a pest that invaded China since 2019.It mainly eats corn,wheat and other crops,which has caused a great threat to agricultural production and has been highly valued by agricultural department.The study aims at clarifying the population mechanism of SF and its distributions in China.First,a new differential system is developed to simulate the SF evolution process among different age stages and then stability theory is employed to calculate the population reproduction number and analyze the conditions of population extinction and persistent existence.Finally,based on the temperature-based model parameter,the effectiveness of temperature on SF survival is quantified,and the distribution patterns in Chinese provinces are estimated.The results indicate that temperature has a significant effect on the growth and migration of SF,in which SF could not survive when temperature is smaller than 19.6℃ or larger than 35.7℃.The suitable temperature for SF survival is 24~28℃,and when temperature is around 24.3℃,SF develops fastest.SF is more sensitive to lower or higher temperature.It is further found that the best approach to control SF is reducing spawning rate and accelerating the death rate of adult SF.

关 键 词：草地贪夜蛾 种群动力学 种群再生数 温度 

分 类 号：O175[理学—数学] Q141[理学—基础数学]