基于IFCM-DEMATEL的海员职业健康与安全风险评价  

Risk assessment of seafarers'occupational health and safety based on IFCM-DEMATEL model

作　　者：左常祁 张秋荣[1] 周偲怡 ZUo Changqi;ZHANG Qiurong;ZHOU Siyi(Merchant Marine College,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 201306,China)

机构地区：[1]上海海事大学商船学院,上海201306

出　　处：《中国航海》2024年第2期25-31,39,共8页Navigation of China

摘　　要：针对海员工伤事故性质的特殊性和严重性,需全面评价分析其职业健康与安全(OHS)水平。从人-机-环-管4个方面识别相关影响因素,建立海员OHS风险评价指标体系;基于直觉模糊认知图(IFCM)和决策试验与评价试验法(DEMATEL)来建立OHS风险评价模型,综合考虑风险评价信息的不确定性和模糊性等特征;利用D-S证据理论来解决专家信息集成问题;通过IFCM模型推理得出定量数据和评价等级;采用DEMATEL筛选重要指标进行对策模拟,分析对策的效益,从而提出重要的针对性意见。算例分析结果表明:所提的模型具有较好的适用性,可为海员OHS风险管理提供参考建议。In view of the particularity and severity of seafarers'industrial accidents,it is necessary to comprehensively evaluate and analyze their OHS(Occupational Health and Safety)level.This paper identifies the relevant influencing factors from four aspects of human,machine,environment and management,and establishes the seafarers'occupational health and safety risk assessment index system;based on IFCM(Intuitionistic Fuzzy Cognitive Map)and DEMATEL(Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory)methods,a risk assessment model for seafarers'occupational health and safety is established,taking into account the uncertainty and fuzziness of risk assessment information;using D-S evidence theory to solve the problem of expert information integration;quantitative data and evaluation grades are obtained through IFCM model inference;Countermeasures are modelled using DEMATEL screening of key indicators,and the effectiveness of the countermeasures is analysed,leading to important targeted observations.The results of the example analysis show that the proposed model has good applicability and can provide a strong reference for seafarers'OHS risk management.

关 键 词：海员 职业健康与安全 直觉模糊认知图 决策试验和评价试验法 D-S证据理论 

分 类 号：U698.92[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]