基于土地利用模拟的生态保护红线划定方法研究——以广州市为例  

A Study on Ecological Protection Red Line Delineation Based on Land Use Simulation:A Case Study of Guangzhou

作　　者：杨文杰 李丹 陈利燕[1,2] 许钡榛 杜剑光 Yang Wenjie;Li Dan;Chen Liyan;Xu Beizhen;Du Jianguang(Guangzhou Urban Planning&Design Survey Research Institute,Guangzhou 510060;GuangdongEnterprise Key Laboratory for Urban Sensing,Monitoringand Early Warning,Guangzhou 510060;South ChinaInstitute of Environmental Science,Ministry of Ecologyand Environment,Guangzhou 510655,China)

机构地区：[1]广州市城市规划勘测设计研究院,广东广州510060 [2]广东省城市感知与监测预警企业重点实验室,广东广州510060 [3]生态环境部华南环境科学研究所,广东广州510655

出　　处：《国土与自然资源研究》2024年第5期25-29,共5页Territory & Natural Resources Study

基　　金：广东省城市感知与监测预警企业重点实验室基金项目(2020B121202019)资助;广州市城市规划勘测设计研究院科技基金项目(RD编号)资助。

摘　　要：针对生态保护红线划定精度低、无法量化等问题,提出来一种基于MCR-PLUS模型的生态保护红线划定方法。该方法基于研究区内生态系统服务价值的演变规律构建生态安全格局,利用生态安全格局进行生态保护红线的初步划定。通过对研究区未来土地利用模拟预测结果,识别研究区生态保护红线易被侵蚀的风险区域,对初步划定的生态保护红线进行优化调整,最终得到研究区生态保护红线的最终划定范围。结果表明,基于MCR-PLUS模型的生态保护红线划定方法可以用量化的指标划定研究区生态保护红线范围,划定的生态保护红线具有较高的精度。Aiming at the problems of low precision and inability to quantify the red line of ecological protection,a method of delineating ecological protection red line based on the MCR-PLUS model is proposed.This method builds an ecological security pattern based on the evolution law of the ecosystem service value in the study area,and uses the ecological security pattern to preliminarily delineate the ecological protection red line.Based on the prediction results of the future land use simulation in the study area,the risk area of the ecological protection red line in the study area has been identified,and the initially delineated ecological protection red line is optimized and adjusted,and finally the final delineated scope of the ecological protection red line in the study area is obtained.The results show that the ecological protection red line delineation method based on the MCR-PLUS model can use quantitative indicators to delimit the ecological protection red line range of the study area,and the delineated ecological protection red line has high accuracy.

关 键 词：MCR模型 PLUS模型 土地利用变化模拟 生态安全格局 生态保护红线 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济] X171.1[环境科学与工程—环境科学]