林业增汇潜力及其对中国碳中和的经济影响分析  

Analysis on the Potential of Forest Carbon Sequestration and Its Economic Impact on Carbon Neutrality in China

作　　者：吴伟光[1] 许骞骞 羊凌玉 刘宇[4] WU Weiguang;XU Qianqian;YANG Lingyu;LIU Yu

机构地区：[1]浙江农林大学浙江省乡村振兴研究院,杭州311300 [2]浙江农林大学经济管理学院,杭州311300 [3]中国科学院大学公共政策与管理学院,北京100190 [4]北京大学城市与环境学院,北京100871

出　　处：《农业技术经济》2024年第8期128-144,共17页Journal of Agrotechnical Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金“林业生命周期固碳能力、增长机理与政策选择研究”(编号:72273133);国家自然科学基金“碳交易背景下林业碳汇项目风险测度、影响机理与管理政策”(编号:71873126);国家自然科学基金“能源环境管理与政策分析”(编号:72125010);国家自然科学基金专项项目“面向碳中和的典型区域与重点行业CCS技术选择与路径优化”(编号:72243011);国家自然科学基金“能源效率内生对碳市场价格波动的影响机理和路径研究--基于动态技术进步CGE模型”(编号:71974186);北京大学中央高校基本科研业务费项目。

摘　　要：准确评估中国林业增汇潜力及其经济影响是科学制定碳中和行动方案的关键。本文在总结中国已有林业增汇潜力相关研究的基础上,基于Meta分析方法识别了中国林业增汇潜力评估差异的关键原因,并对中国未来林业增汇潜力进行了重新预测;进而基于改进的动态CGE模型,模拟分析了林业增汇对中国的经济影响。研究表明:(1)未来中国林业增汇空间较大。综合考虑森林地上生物量碳库、地下生物量碳库和土壤碳库情景下,中国森林总碳储量与年均碳汇增量,将分别从2020年的177.10亿吨碳和每年9.37亿吨二氧化碳当量,上升到2060年的340.91亿吨碳和每年15.51亿吨二氧化碳当量。(2)林业增汇有助于缓解碳中和目标实现的经济代价。随着林业增汇规模扩大,2060年中国GDP累计降幅从4.19%减少到2.01%,所有行业平均降幅从7.77%下降至3.94%。(3)林业增汇有助于降低边际和平均减排成本。2060年碳价格从12222元下降至863元,边际减排成本下降93%;平均减排成本从2688元下降至1882元,降幅达到30%。(4)基于“成本-收益分析”,林业增汇存在最优空间。基于平均增汇成本分析,中国林业增汇的最优空间在25亿~30亿吨。基于研究结果,本文提出政府应尽快将林业增汇纳入碳中和方案,重视林业增汇评估方法与相关政策研究,合理确定林业增汇发展目标以及需重点关注碳减排技术研发及其动态演变关系等建议。Accurate assessment of the potential and underlying economic impact of China's forestry carbon sequestration growth is the key to developing a scientific carbon neutral action plan.On the basis of summarizing existing research about the potential of forestry carbon seques-tration growth in China,the key reasons for the differences in the assessment of forestry carbon se-questration growth potential are identified according to the meta-analysis method and the future potential of forestry carbon sequestration growth in China is re-predicted.Based on the modified dynamic CCE model,the impact of forestry carbon sequestration growth on China's economy is simulated and analyzed.The study shows that:(1)In the future,the space of forestry carbon se-questration growth in China is large.Comprehensively considering the scenarios of aboveground bi-omass carbon pool,underground biomass carbon pool and soil carbon pool,China's total forest carbon stocks and average annual forestry carbon sequestration increment will rise from 17.71 bil-lion tons of carbon and 937 million tons of COze/year in 2020 to 34.091 billion tons of carbon and 1.551 billion tons of CO,e/year in 2060.(2)Forestry carbon sequestration can help mitigate the economic costs of achieving carbon neutrality.With the expansion of the scale of forestry carbon sequestration growth,the cumulative decline of China's GDP in 2060 will be reduced from 4.19%to 2.01%,and the average decline of all industries will be decreased from 7.77%to 3.94%.(3)Forestry carbon sequestration growth can help reduce marginal costs and average emission reduction costs.In 2060,the carbon price will fall from 12,222 yuan to 863 yuan,and the marginal emission reduction cost will be reduced by 93%;the average emission reduction cost will decrease by 30%from 2,688 yuan to 1,882 yuan.(4)Based on the cost-benefit analysis,there is an optimal space for forestry carbon sequestration growth,which is between 2.5~3 billion tons in view of the analysis of average forestry carbon sequestration growth cos

关 键 词：碳中和 森林碳汇潜力 减排成本 META分析 动态CGE模型 

分 类 号：F326.2[经济管理—产业经济] X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学]