基于GM(1,1)的山东省沿海港口物流需求预测研究  

Research on Logistics Demand Forecasting of Coastal Ports in Shandong Province based on GM (1,1)

作　　者：朱晓璐 陈永祥[1] 张心慧 ZHU Xiao-lu;CHEN Yong-xiang;ZHANG Xin-hui(Shandong Jiaotong University,Ji′nan 250357,China)

机构地区：[1]山东交通学院,济南250357

出　　处：《价值工程》2024年第22期23-25,共3页Value Engineering

摘　　要：沿海港口是国际贸易的关键通道,提高沿海港口的物流服务水平能带动区域经济发展,山东省作为一个港口大省,拥有数个重要港口,沿海港口行业已成为山东省经济发展的支柱产业,但由于建设不合理等原因,山东港口也存在许多问题。因此,文章选取山东省七个沿海港口城市,采用GM(1,1)模型对山东省主要沿海港口物流需求量进行预测,发现未来五年山东省沿海港口的物流需求逐年稳定提升,最后结合山东省沿海港口物流发展现状提出相应的发展对策及建议。Coastal ports are key channels for international trade,and improving the logistics service level of coastal ports can drive regional economic development.As a major port province,Shandong Province has several important ports,and the coastal port industry has become a pillar industry for Shandong Province's economic development.However,due to unreasonable construction and other reasons,there are also many problems with Shandong ports.Therefore,the article selects seven coastal port cities in Shandong Province and uses the GM(1,1)model to predict the logistics demand of major coastal ports in Shandong Province.It is found that the logistics demand of coastal ports in Shandong Province will steadily increase year by year in the next five years.Finally,corresponding development strategies and suggestions are proposed based on the current situation of logistics development in coastal ports in Shandong Province.

关 键 词：GM(1 1)模型 港口物流 需求预测 

分 类 号：F552[经济管理—产业经济]