基于CARAH模型的重庆春马铃薯晚疫病侵染特征模拟分析  

Analysis of late blight infection patterns in spring potatoes in Chongqing using the CARAH simulation model

作　　者：罗孳孳 武强 朱玉涵 刘晓菱 陈东东[3] 阳园燕 唐余学 毕淼 LUO Zizi;WU Qiang;ZHU Yuhan;LIU Xiaoling;CHEN Dongdong;YANG Yuanyan;TANG Yuxue;BI Miao(Key Open Laboratory of Transforming Climate Resource to Economy,China Meteorological Administration,Chongqing Institute of Meteorological Sciences,Chongqing 401147,China;Chongqing Wuxi County Plantation Development Service Centre,Chongqing 405800,China;Sichuan Key Laboratory of Water-Saving Agriculture Research in Southern Hilly Areas,Sichuan Provincial Agrometeorological Centre,Chengdu 610072,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局气候资源经济转化重点开放实验室,重庆市气象科学研究所,重庆401147 [2]重庆市巫溪县种植业发展服务中心,重庆405800 [3]四川省农业气象中心,南方丘区节水农业研究四川省重点实验室,成都610072

出　　处：《植物保护》2024年第4期80-90,共11页Plant Protection

基　　金：中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2021J073);重庆市技术创新与应用发展专项(CSTB2023TIAD-GPX0053);四川省科技厅重点研发项目(2023YFS0376)。

摘　　要：马铃薯晚疫病是影响马铃薯产量的首要病害,研究其在山地立体气候条件下的发生流行特征具有重要意义。本文利用重庆地区260个地面气象观测站2019年-2023年小时级温湿度数据,采用CARAH模型模拟分析了春马铃薯晚疫病侵染频度、严重程度、关键侵染周期等时空特征,并采用巫溪县2022年马铃薯田间小气候监测数据对模拟精度进行了检验。结果表明,采用小时级地面气象观测数据模拟的晚疫病侵染空报率、漏报率均在20%以内,整体精度较佳。5年气象数据模拟结果显示,重庆地区气候条件有利于春马铃薯晚疫病的发生发展,早、晚熟品种栽培期普遍发生4~8代(11~20次)、8~12代(21~40次)侵染;严重程度呈现“两极化”特点,轻度和极重度侵染次数具有明显优势。第3代第1次和第5代第1次2个关键侵染周期的开始期分别在3月上旬至4月下旬、3月下旬至5月中旬,高峰期分别为3月下旬和4月中旬。春马铃薯晚疫病侵染的空间分异特征明显,东北部主产区侵染代数、次数、极重度侵染次数均少于其他产区,是晚疫病发生最轻的地区。关键侵染周期的开始时间随海拔升高而推迟,中西部丘陵低山地区早,东部武陵山与大巴山区晚。Late blight is the primary disease affecting potato yields in China.Research on the epidemiological characteristics of potato late blight under mountainous,three-dimensional climatic conditions is of great theoretical and practical significance for early warning,prevention,and control of disease.This study utilized hourly temperature and humidity data from 260 surface meteorological stations in Chongqing,collected from 2019 to 2023,to simulate late blight infection using the CARAH late blight modelling approach.Based on the simulation,we analyzed the spatial and temporal characteristics of late blight infection frequency,severity,and critical infection cycle time in spring potatoes in Chongqing.Simulation accuracy was tested using microclimate monitoring data from potato fields in Wuxi county in 2022.The results showed that the FAR and PO for late blight infection simulated with hourly surface meteorological observations were lower 20%,suggesting good overall accuracy.The five-year meteorological data simulation results showed that Chongqing’s climatic conditions are conducive to the development of late blight in spring potatoes.Early-and late-maturing varieties were generally infested by 4-8 generations(11-20 times)and 8-12 generations(21-40 times)during the cultivation period,respectively,with the severity of infection showing a“bipolarization”trend,displaying a clear pattern of mild and severe infections.The key late blight infection cycle started from early March to late April(1st of 3rd generation)and from late March to mid-May(1st of 5th generation),with peaks occurring in late March and mid-April.The spatial distribution of late blight infection in spring potatoes showed obvious heterogeneity.The northeastern main production area experienced fewer generations and times of late blight infection,with fewer instances of severe infection compared to other production areas,making it the area with the lightest infection.The onset of the key infection cycle was delayed with increasing altitude,occurring ear

关 键 词：晚疫病 马铃薯 CARAH模型 侵染 重庆 

分 类 号：S16[农业科学—农业气象学] P49[农业科学—农业基础科学]