2011-2020年沈阳城区居民恶性肿瘤死亡率和早死概率趋势分析  

Trend analysis of malignant tumor mortality and probability of premature mortality in Shenyang city from 2011 to 2020

作　　者：吕艺[1] 张馨予 陈建平[1] 聂慧芳 王晓丽[1] LüYi;Zhang Xinyu;Chen Jianping;Nie Huifang;Wang Xiaoli(Institute for Chronic Disease Control and Prevention,Shenyang Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Shenyang 110068,China;College of Foreign Languages,University of Information Engineering,Luoyang 471003,China)

机构地区：[1]沈阳市疾病预防控制中心慢病所,辽宁沈阳110068 [2]信息工程大学外国语学院,河南洛阳471003

出　　处：《实用肿瘤杂志》2024年第4期311-316,共6页Journal of Practical Oncology

基　　金：辽宁省自然科学基金指导计划(20180550495)。

摘　　要：目的分析2011-2020年沈阳城区居民恶性肿瘤死亡率和早死概率的变化趋势。方法从国家级肿瘤监测点肿瘤随访与登记报告系统中提取2011-2020年沈阳市城区恶性肿瘤死亡数据,计算死亡率、标化死亡率(中标率)、早死概率和去死因期望寿命指标。采用χ^(2)检验比较男性和女性死亡率。对死亡率、标化死亡率和早死概率进行年度变化百分比(annual percentagechange,APC)趋势分析。结果2011-2020年沈阳城区居民恶性肿瘤死亡率为219.32/10万,标化死亡率为98.53/10万,早死概率为6.57%。10年间男性恶性肿瘤标化死亡率呈下降趋势(APC=-1.76%,P<0.01);女性恶性肿瘤标化死亡率2015年前无明显变化(APC=-1.02%,P=0.148),2015年后呈下降趋势(APC=-3.50%,P<0.01)。男性和女性早死概率均呈下降趋势(均P<0.01)。男性恶性肿瘤死亡率(χ^(2)=3164.93,P<0.01)和早死概率均高于女性。男性恶性肿瘤死亡率顺位前5位是肺癌、肝癌、结直肠癌、胃癌和食管癌。除结直肠癌外(P>0.05),男性其他恶性肿瘤早死概率均呈下降趋势(均P<0.05)。女性恶性肿瘤死亡率顺位前5位为肺癌、结直肠癌、乳腺癌、肝癌和胃癌,只有肺癌和胃癌早死概率呈下降趋势(均P<0.01)。结论2011-2020年沈阳市城区居民恶性肿瘤标化死亡率和早死概率逐年下降,老年人和男性要加强防范意识,肺癌、乳腺癌、肝癌、结直肠癌、胃癌和食管癌仍是重点防控癌种。Objective To analyze the trends in the mortality and probability of premature mortality of cancer among urban residents in Shenyang from 2011 to 2020.Methods The death data of malignant tumors in urban areas of Shenyang from 2011 to 2020 were extracted from the tumor registration report system in national cancer surveillance point.The mortality,age-standardized mortality rate by Chinese standard population,probability of premature mortality,and cause-eliminated life expectancy were calculated.The mortality was compared between males and females byχ^(2) test.The annual percentage changes(APCs)of the mortality,age-standardized mortality rate,and prob-ability of premature mortality were analyzed.Results From 2011 to 2020,the mortality,age-standardized mortality rate and probability of premature mortality of malignant tumors among urban residents in Shenyang,were 219.32/105,98.53/105,and 6.57%,respectively.The age-standardized mortality rate in males showed a downward trend(APC=-1.76%,P<0.01),while the age-standardized mortality rate in females showed no significant change before 2015(APC=-1.02%,P=0.148),and a downward trend after 2015(APC=-3.50%,P<0.01).The probabilities of premature mortality in males and females both showed downward trends(both P<0.01).The mortality(χ^(2)=3164.93,P<0.01)and probability of premature mortality of malignant tumors were higher in males than those in females.The top five mortality rates of malignant tumors in males were lung cancer,liver cancer,colorectal cancer,gastric cancer,and esophageal cancer,and the probabil-ities of premature mortality of these malignant tumors were all decreased(all P<0.05),except for colorectal cancer(P>0.05).The top five mortality rates of malignant tumors in females were lung cancer,colorectal cancer,breast cancer,liver cancer and gastric cancer,and only lung cancer and gastric cancer had decreasing probabilities of premature mortality(both P<0.01).Conclusions From 2011 to 2020,the age-standardized mortality rate and probability of premature mortality of

关 键 词：恶性肿瘤 死亡率 早死概率 变化趋势 

分 类 号：R73-31[医药卫生—肿瘤]