1990-2019年中国人群偏头痛的疾病负担及未来变化趋势预测  

Disease burden of migraine in the Chinese population and forecast of future trends,1990-2019

作　　者：刘伦[1] 曾云 寇沛[1] 邝小娜 LIU Lun;ZENG Yun;KOU Pei;KUANG Xiao-na(Department of Medical Record Statistics,First Hospital of Wuhan,Wuhan,Hubei 430030,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉市第一医院病案统计室,湖北武汉430030

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2024年第14期2683-2688,共6页Modern Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：目的了解中国1990-2019年偏头痛的疾病负担情况,并预测2020-2030年的疾病负担变化趋势,旨在为公共卫生决策提供可靠的数据支持。方法研究采用全球疾病负担2019(GBD2019)数据,对1990年至2019年中国偏头痛的年龄标准化发病率(ASIR)和年龄标化DALY率进行了分析。并使用估计年变化百分比(EAPC)模型和贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列分析(BAPC)方法揭示变化和趋势。结果从1990-2019年,中国偏头痛的ASIR和年龄标化DALY率均呈上升趋势,其EAPC分别为0.24%(95%CI:0.20~0.29%)和0.27%(95%CI:0.22~0.32%)。偏头痛的ASIR在10~15岁年龄段中达到最高,随后趋于波动式下降,在25~30岁ASIR呈现上升趋势。年龄标化DALY率在40~45岁组达到最高。女性的疾病负担指标均高于同时期的男性。根据BAPC模型预测结果,2020-2030年中国偏头痛全人群ASIR呈现上升趋势,全人群ASIR年增长率为0.88%,男性和女性的ASIR年增长率分别为1.21%和0.64%。结论中国的偏头痛疾病负担仍然较为严重,应重点关注青少年和中青年人群,制定定制化的预防和干预策略至关重要。Objective To assess the disease burden of migraine in China from 1990 to 2019 and predict the changing trends in disease burden from 2020 to 2030,which may provide reliable data support for public health decision-making.Methods The study utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019(GBD2019)database and analyzed the age-standardized incidence rate(ASIR)and age-standardized DALY rate of migraine in China from 1990 to 2019.Estimation of annual percentage change(EAPC)models and Bayesian age-period-cohort(BAPC)analysis methods were employed to reveal changes and trends.Results From 1990 to 2019,both the ASIR and age-standardized DALY rate of migraine in China showed an upward trend,with EAPCs of 0.24%(95%CI:0.20%-0.29%)and 0.27%(95%CI:0.22%-0.32%),respectively.The highest ASIR for migraine was observed in the age group of 10-15 years,followed by a fluctuating decline,and then an increase in ASIR in the 25-30 age group.The age-standardized DALY rate peaked in the 40-45 age group.Disease burden indicators for females exceeded those for males during the same period.According to the BAPC model predictions,the ASIR for migraine in the entire population of China was expected to increase from 2020 to 2030,with an annual growth rate of 0.88%.The annual growth rates of ASIR for males and females were projected to be 1.21%and 0.64%,respectively.Conclusion The burden of migraine in China remains quite severe,and there should be a focus on adolescents and young to middle-aged populations.Customized prevention and intervention strategies are crucial for high-risk populations of different ages and genders.

关 键 词：偏头痛 疾病负担 伤残调整寿命年 贝叶斯-时期-队列分析 

分 类 号：R747.2[医药卫生—神经病学与精神病学]