基于极点对称模态分解的石羊河流域出山径流特征分析  

Characteristics of Runoff in Shiyang River Basin Revealed by ESMD Analysis

作　　者：赵国栋 谢飞 王英[2] ZHAO Guodong;XIE Fei;WANG Ying(Gansu Water Resources and Hydropower Survey and Design and Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Lanzhou 730000,China;Gansu Academy for Water Conservancy,Lanzhou 730000,China)

机构地区：[1]甘肃省水利水电勘测设计研究院有限责任公司,甘肃兰州730000 [2]甘肃省水利科学研究院,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《人民黄河》2024年第8期38-42,共5页Yellow River

基　　金：甘肃省科技计划专项(22ZD6WA043)。

摘　　要：随着全球气候变化加剧,石羊河流域水资源紧缺日益严重,利用合理方法研究径流的变化规律对水资源规划管理尤为重要。基于石羊河流域1956—2018年出山径流量时间序列,利用极点对称模态分解(ESMD)方法,分析石羊河出山径流序列的周期变化、突变特征和变化趋势,并利用Morlet小波分析、Mann-Kendall检验法及R/S分析法进行对比验证分析。结果表明:ESMD方法能够高效地分析处理径流数据;石羊河出山径流序列存在3.0、7.3、12.6 a的周期变化,不同时间尺度发生突变的时间不同;预测短期内石羊河出山径流量仍将持续增加,但是长期必然呈现减少趋势。With the global climate change intensified,Chinese regional water resources shortage is becoming increasingly serious.Using ade-quate method to study the varied pattern on runoff is particularly important for water resources planning and management.Based on the time series of mountain runoff from 1956 to 2018 in Shiyang River Basin,the periodic change,abrupt change and trend change of mountain runoff series in Shiyang River Basin were analyzed by using extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition(ESMD)method,and the Morlet wavelet analysis method,Mann-Kendall test method and R/S analysis method were used for comparative verification analysis.The results show that the ESMD method can analyze and process runoff data efficiently.The runoff series of Shiyang River has periodic changes of 3.0 years,7.3 years,12.6 years,and the time of mutation is different under different time scales,and the time of abrupt change in different time scales is also different.And forecast shows that the runoff in Shiyang River Basin will continue to increase in short term,but it will inevitably decrease in the long term.

关 键 词：出山径流 极点对称模态分解 Morlet小波分析法 周期分析 突变 石羊河流域 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]