2016~2022年淄博市主要恶性肿瘤的早死概率和疾病负担分析  

Disease Burden and Probability of Premature Mortality Caused by Major Malignant Tumors in Zibo from 2016 to 2022

作　　者：刘靖靖[1] 杨淑霞[1] 宋代琴[1] 李东芝 Liu Jingjing;Yang Shuxia;Song Daiqin;Li Dongzhi(Institute for Endemic and Chronic Disease Control,Zibo Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Zibo 255026,Shandong,China)

机构地区：[1]淄博市疾病预防控制中心地方病慢性病防制所,山东淄博255026

出　　处：《肿瘤预防与治疗》2024年第7期585-591,共7页Journal of Cancer Control And Treatment

基　　金：山东省医药卫生计划(编号:202112010587);淄博市科技发展计划(编号:2017kj010092);淄博市医药卫生科研项目(编号:20231705120)。

摘　　要：目的:了解淄博市户籍居民主要恶性肿瘤早死概率和疾病负担情况,为恶性肿瘤防治提供理论依据。方法:收集2016~2022年淄博市户籍居民恶性肿瘤死亡资料,计算分析恶性肿瘤死亡率、早死概率和疾病负担。结果:2016~2022年淄博市恶性肿瘤标化死亡率从95.76/10万下降至81.01/10万,年度变化百分比(annual percentage change,APC)为-2.60%(t=-9.588,P<0.05),男性恶性肿瘤死亡率是女性的1.75倍;恶性肿瘤死亡顺位前5位依次为:肺癌、胃癌、肝癌、结直肠癌和女性乳腺癌;恶性肿瘤早死概率为5.93%,APC为-2.84%(t=-6.766,P<0.05)。男性早死概率是女性的1.96倍。2016~2022年肺癌、肝癌和胃癌的早死概率呈下降趋势(P<0.05),APC分别为-3.28%、-5.07%、-3.44%,男性结直肠癌的早死概率呈上升趋势,APC为2.70%(P<0.05),女性恶性肿瘤早死概率排名中乳腺癌上升至第2位。2016~2022年淄博市恶性肿瘤导致的早死寿命损失年(year of life lost,YLL)率、伤残寿命损失年率和伤残调整寿命年(disability-adjusted life year,DALY)率分别为22.45/千人、0.20/千人和22.65/千人,全人群、男性和女性YLL率和DALY率均呈下降趋势(P<0.05),女性恶性肿瘤DALY率排名中乳腺癌上升至第3位;2016~2022年全人群和男性肝癌DALY率呈下降趋势(P<0.05),APC分别为-3.02%、-3.05%,全人群和男性结直肠癌DALY率呈上升趋势(P<0.05),APC分别为2.07%、3.00%,女性胃癌在1.69%~1.90%之间波动,女性乳腺癌DALY率在1.51%~1.97%之间波动。结论:2016~2022年淄博市恶性肿瘤标化死亡率和早死概率逐年下降,肺癌、肝癌、胃癌和女性乳腺癌疾病负担较为严峻,对淄博市户籍居民健康影响较大,应针对不同类型的恶性肿瘤,制定相应的防治对策。Objective:To investigate the disease burden and probability of premature mortality caused by major malignant tumors among residents registered in Zibo,and provide a scientific basis for the prevention and treatment of malignant tumors.Methods:Mortality,probability of premature mortality and disease burden were analyzed based on the mortality data of malignant tumors from residents registered in Zibo from 2016 to 2022.Results:From 2016 to 2022,the standardized mortality rate of malignant tumors in Zibo decreased from 95.76/105 to 81.01/105,and the annual percentage change(APC)was-2.60%(t=-9.588,P<0.05).The mortality rate of malignant tumors in males was 1.75 times higher than that in females.The top five causes of cancer death were lung cancer,gastric cancer,liver cancer,colorectal cancer and female breast cancer.The probability of premature mortality due to malignant tumors was 5.93%,and the APC was-2.84%(t=-6.766,P<0.05).The probability of premature mortality in males was 1.96 times higher than that in females.The probability of premature mortality caused by lung cancer,liver cancer and gastric cancer decreased from 2016 to 2022,the APC were-3.28%,-5.07%and-3.44%,respectively(P<0.05).The probability of premature mortality due to colorectal cancer in males increased from 2016 to 2022,the APC was 2.70%(P<0.05).Breast cancer ranked the second in the ranking of causes of the probability of premature mortality among female malignant tumors from 2016 to 2022.From 2016 to 2022,the years of life lost(YLL)rate,years lived with disability(YLD)rate and disability-adjusted life year(DALY)rate due to malignant tumors in Zibo were 22.45/1,000,0.20/1,000 and 22.65/1,000,respectively;the YLL and DALY rates in the entire population,in males and in females decreased significantly(P<0.05);breast cancer rose to the third place in the ranking of causes of the DALY rates among female malignant tumors.From 2016 to 2022,the DALY rate of liver cancer in the entire population and males decreased(P<0.05),the APC were-3.02%and-3.05%,respec

关 键 词：恶性肿瘤 死亡率 早死概率 疾病负担 变化趋势 

分 类 号：R730.1[医药卫生—肿瘤]