北印度洋热带气旋统计特征及年代际变化  

Statistical Characteristics and Interdecadal Variation of Tropical Cyclones in the North Indian Ocean

作　　者：鲁子翰 李晓静 唐佑民 李熠 LU Zihan;LI Xiaojing;TANG Youmin;LI Yi(State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics,Second Institute of Oceanography,Ministry of Natural Resources,Hangzhou 310012;Hohai University,Nanjing 210024;Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai),Zhuhai 519082)

机构地区：[1]自然资源部第二海洋研究所卫星海洋环境动力学实验室,杭州310012 [2]河海大学,南京210024 [3]南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(珠海),珠海519082

出　　处：《大气科学》2024年第4期1584-1592,共9页Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

基　　金：中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目JG2206;全球变化与海气相互作用(二期)专项GASI-04-QYQH-01、GASI-01-WPAC-STspr。

摘　　要：本研究利用基于统一卫星观测和识别方法产生的ADT-HURSAT气旋数据集,对北印度洋热带气旋在1978~2017共40年的整体特征及年代际变化进行了统计分析。研究发现,春季和秋季是北印度洋热带气旋的高发季节,孟加拉湾气旋数量达到峰值的时间在两个高发季节中均比阿拉伯海提前约一个月。北印度洋气旋的生成区域主要分布于阿拉伯海东部海域和孟加拉湾中部偏西海域。CS(Cyclone Storm)等级气旋更多生成于在北印度洋的偏北海域,ESCS(Extremely Severe Cyclone Storm)等级及以上的强气旋全部在5°N~15°N纬度范围内生成。对于年代际变化,北印度洋热带气旋在秋季的生成数量平均每十年增加5个,生成区域在后二十年呈现向西北方向移动的特点,其中阿拉伯海热带气旋生成位置分别向西移动1.3°和3.2°(p<0.01),较孟加拉湾气旋变化更加显著,平均增强速率也超过孟加拉湾约20%。特别是,相比于前10年(1998~2007),阿拉伯海近10年(2008~2017年)热带气旋数量减少,气旋达到的最大强度提高至120 kt,孟加拉湾气旋数量自1998年以来较为稳定,气旋最大强度却持续降低,这与使用其他数据集的研究结果不同,表明数据集质量对气旋特征变化的重要性。进一步分析发现,北印度洋潜热通量的年代际差异是控制北印度洋热带气旋生成位置年代际变化的主要因素。Based on the ADT-HURSAT cyclone dataset produced by the unified satellite observation and identification scheme,the general characteristics of tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean(NIO)during the 40-year period of 1978–2017 were statistically investigated.The results reveal that spring and autumn were the peak seasons for tropical cyclones in the NIO,and the peak number of cyclones in the Bay of Bengal was about one month earlier than that in the Arabian Sea in both peak seasons.Cyclones in the NIO occurred mainly in the eastern waters of the Arabian Sea and the west-central waters of the Bay of Bengal.Cyclones of the cyclone storm class were more common in the north,whereas all cyclones above(including)the extremely severe cyclone storm class occurred within the 5°N-15°N latitude.For interdecadal changes,the number of tropical cyclones in the NIO increased by an average of 5 per decade in the autumn for the decadal change,and the region was characterized as moving northwestward in the next two decades,with tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea moved 1.3°and 3.2°(p<0.01),more significant than the Bay of Bengal cyclones,with an average intensification rate of about 20%over the Bay of Bengal.Compared with the previous 10 years(1998-2007),their number decreased,and their maximum intensity increased to 120 kt;meanwhile,their number has remained stable since 1998,but their maximum intensity decreased.These conclusions differed from studies using other datasets,indicating that dataset quality is important for the analysis of cyclonic characteristics.Further analysis exhibited that decadal variation in latent heat flux is the main factor controlling the interdecadal change in a tropical cyclone generation area in the NIO.

关 键 词：北印度洋 热带气旋 时空特征 年代际变化 潜热通量 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]