中国工业用水演变驱动因素分析  

An Analysis of the Industrial Water Use Evolution in China

作　　者：张旭 张建云[3] 敖天其[4] 王小军[3] 王炳轩 ZHANG Xu;ZHANG Jian-yun;AO Tian-qi;WANG Xiao-jun;WANG Bing-xuan(Key Laboratory of Integrated Regulation and Resource Development on Shallow Lakes,Ministry of Education,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;College of Environment,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;State Key Laboratory of Hydrology and Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering Science,Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,China;College of Water Resource&Hydropower,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610065,China;College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学浅水湖泊综合治理与资源开发教育部重点实验室,南京210098 [2]河海大学环境学院,南京210098 [3]南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,南京210029 [4]四川大学水利水电学院,成都610065 [5]河海大学水文水资源学院,南京210098

出　　处：《环境科学》2024年第8期4520-4528,共9页Environmental Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52121006,41961124006,51722905);水利标准制修订项目(126302001000180011,126302001000210005);自然资源部国土空间规划体系重大问题研究项目(20210103);江苏省国土资源研究中心(智库)开放合作项目(ZK202106,ZK22003);江苏省自然资源科技项目(2021003,2022022);江苏省“六大人才高峰”高层次人才项目(JNHB-068)。

摘　　要：为深化工业用水量随社会经济发展变化规律的认识,提出“双层嵌套式”的结构分解分析(SDA)方法,量化了2002~2020年我国不同行业工业用水量变化驱动因素的影响.结果表明,以消费、投资和出口为代表的规模扩张因素是不同行业工业用水量增长的主要因素,其中人均消费扩张效应增长较快,且不同行业工业规模扩张的主要驱动因素存在明显差异,直接推动了工业结构变化.而工艺用水变动和水资源重复利用率变动是遏制工业用水量增长的主要因素,两者累计已完全抵消了工业规模扩张的正向效应,累计减少工业用水量112亿m^(3);但金属采选、冶炼加工及电力等能源加工行业的工艺用水变动负向效应偏小,仅依靠水资源重复利用率提升的工业用水效率提升潜力较小.因此,需要基于不同行业影响差异有针对性地强化工业节水管理,推动工业生产结构和消费结构转型升级,保持工业用水负增长态势.To deepen the recognition of changes in industrial water use with socio-economic development,a“double-layer nested”structural decomposition analysis has been proposed to decompose the influence of the drivers of industrial water use change by sectors in China from 2002 to 2020.The results showed that the scale expansion factors represented by consumption,investment,and export were the main factors for the growth of industrial water use in different sectors,among which the expansion effect of per capita consumption grew faster.Additionally,there were obvious differences in the major drivers of industrial scale expansion between different sectors,which directly drove the industrial structure change.The production process water use effect and water reuse effect were the main factors to curb the growth of industrial water use.The accumulation of both had completely offset the positive effect of industrial scale expansion during the period,reducing industrial water consumption by 11.2 billion m³.However,the production process water use changes in metal extraction,smelting,and processing and energy processing sectors such as electric power had a smaller negative effect,leading to the potential for improving industrial water efficiency solely through a relatively small improvement in water resource reuse.Therefore,it is necessary to strengthen industrial water conservation management based on the differences in the impact of various sectors to promote the transformation and upgradation of industrial production and consumption structures,and to avoid another increase in industrial water use in China.

关 键 词：工业用水 结构分解分析(SDA) 投入产出模型 重复利用率 不同行业 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]