杭州都市圈碳收支的土地利用变化驱动和优化  

Land Use Change Driving and Optimization of Carbon Budget in Hangzhou Metropolitan Area

作　　者：王诗逸 李艳[1] 杨佳钰 余迩 雷凯歌 冯新惠 WANG Shi-yi;LI Yan;YANG Jia-yu;YU Er;LEI Kai-ge;FENG Xin-hui(Institute of Land Science and Property,School of Public Affairs,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江大学公共管理学院土地科学与不动产研究所,杭州310058

出　　处：《环境科学》2024年第8期4670-4682,共13页Environmental Science

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究项目(22YJAZH055);国家自然科学基金项目(42271261)。

摘　　要：随着全球变暖等气候变化成为全球性环境问题,厘清基于土地利用变化的碳收支驱动机制成为实现“双碳”目标的必然路径.基于杭州都市圈1995~2020年土地利用变化特征,采用清单核算法、集中化指数和面板回归模型探究碳收支的土地利用变化驱动机制,并根据“情景-行动者”政策分析框架提出国土空间规划耦合土地利用管理的低碳优化策略.结果发现:①研究区碳源能力远高于碳汇能力,碳收支集中化指数整体尚未越过0.4“警戒线”,空间集中水平大小表现为:杭州>黄山>绍兴>衢州>嘉兴≈湖州;②对耕地,较大的面积和较高的形状规整程度有助于降低碳收支量;对建设用地,较大的面积和较高的破碎化程度会加剧碳收支水平,且主要受到其他城镇用地驱动;③较大的耕地面积占比和较高的土地利用混合度会增加碳收支空间均衡性,而工业用地和其他城镇用地的面积占比和破碎化程度增加更易导致碳收支空间分布不均;④国土空间低碳优化需以调整碳源功能用地结构和形态为关键抓手.政策执行层面,中央政府和城市居民对国土空间低碳调控表现出高度支持,地方政府、企业和农村村民的配合度尚不理想,需要配套政策协同引导.研究结论对提升土地利用效率和促进城市低碳发展具有现实意义.As climate change,such as global warming,has become a global environmental issue,clarifying the mechanism driving the carbon budget based on land use change has become an inevitable path to realize the“double carbon”goal.Based on the land use change characteristics in the Hangzhou Metropolitan Area from 1995 to 2020,this study employed the inventory accounting method,concentration index,and panel regression models to investigate the driving mechanisms of carbon budget dynamics influenced by land use changes.Moreover,the study utilized a“scenario-actor”policy analysis framework to propose low-carbon strategies through the integration of land use management within territorial spatial planning.The research findings were as follows:①The carbon source capacity in the study area significantly surpassed its carbon sink capacity.The overall carbon budget concentration index had yet to exceed the 0.4“alert threshold,”with spatial concentration levels as follows:Hangzhou>Huangshan>Shaoxing>Quzhou>Jiaxing≈Huzhou.②For croplands,larger areas and greater shape regularity contributed to a reduction in carbon budgets.Conversely,for constructed lands,expansive areas and increased fragmentation intensified the carbon budget levels,primarily driven by other urban land categories.③An increased proportion of croplands and higher land use heterogeneity promoted spatial equilibrium in carbon budgets,whereas the larger coverage and fragmentation of industrial and other urban lands led to an uneven spatial distribution of carbon budgets.④Lowcarbon optimization of territorial space needs to adjust for the structure and form of carbon source functional land use as a key driver.At the policy implementation level,the central government and urban residents demonstrated strong support for low-carbon territorial control.However,cooperation from local governments,enterprises,and rural residents was suboptimal,necessitating complementary policies for effective guidance.This study holds practical significance for enhancing la

关 键 词：碳收支 土地利用变化 驱动机制 优化路径 杭州都市圈 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]