1990~2019年中国男性泌尿与生殖系统肿瘤疾病负担变化及预测分析  

Changes in the disease burden of male urinary and reproductive system tumors in China from 1990 to 2019:Analysis with a prediction of the future trend

作　　者：受梦媛 郑楠 刘一笑 吴小玉 方柔柔 孙娜 SHOU Meng-yuan;ZHENG Nan;LIU Yi-xiao;WU Xiao-yu;FANG Rou-rou;SUN Na(School of Public Health,Shaanxi University of Chinese Medicine,Xianyang,Shaanxi 712046,China)

机构地区：[1]陕西中医药大学公共卫生学院,陕西咸阳712046

出　　处：《中华男科学杂志》2024年第5期397-403,共7页National Journal of Andrology

基　　金：陕西省自然科学基础研究计划项目(2024JC-YBMS-744);陕西中医药大学研究生创新项目(CXSJ202322,CXSJ202433)。

摘　　要：目的:分析及预测1990~2019年中国男性泌尿及生殖系统肿瘤中前列腺癌、睾丸癌、肾癌和膀胱癌的疾病负担变化。方法:全球疾病负担数据库中选择1990~2019年中国男性前列腺癌、睾丸癌、肾癌和膀胱癌的发病、死亡与疾病负担数据,运用Joinpoint回归模型计算疾病负担的变化趋势,ARIMA模型对发病情况进行预测。结果:1990~2019年中国男性前列腺癌、肾癌、膀胱癌、睾丸癌的标化发病率及患病率均处于上升水平,睾丸癌标化发病率和患病率增幅最高,分别增长了326.79%和1070.93%;前列腺癌疾病负担最高,2019年其标化发病率、患病率、死亡率分别为17.34/10万、117.65/10万、7.79/10万;肾癌的标化死亡率与DALY率明显上升,分别增长了103.59%和103.17%。2019年前列腺癌、肾癌和膀胱癌发病率、死亡率和DALYs率最高的年龄段均为90~94岁,患病率最高的年龄段为70~89岁;睾丸癌患病率最高的年龄段为25~49岁。ARIMA模型预测显示,2020~2029年中国男性前列腺癌、睾丸癌、肾癌和膀胱癌的标化发病率仍呈上升趋势。结论:中国男性前列腺癌、睾丸癌、肾癌、膀胱癌的疾病负担呈上升趋势,其中年轻男性该系统疾病负担上升显著,提示年轻人群泌尿生殖系统肿瘤的防治问题应进一步关注;预测到2029年,标化发病率均有所上升。Objective:To analyze the changes in the disease burden of prostate,testis,kidney and bladder cancers among urinary and reproductive system tumors in Chinese men from 1990 to 2019 with a prediction of the future trend.Methods:We retrieved the data on the incidence,mortality and disease burden of prostate,testis,kidney and bladder cancers in Chinese men between 1990 and 2019 from the database of Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.Using the Joinpoint regression model,we analyzed the trend of changes in the disease burden,and predicted the prevalence of the tumors with the ARIMA model.Results:From 1990 to 2019,the standardized incidence and prevalence of prostate,testis,kidney and bladder cancers were on the rise in Chinese men,and those of testis cancer increased most significantly,by 326.79% and 1070.93% respectively.The disease burden of PCa was the highest,with standardized incidence,prevalence and mortality ratios of 17.34/100000,117.65/100000 and 7.79/100000 respectively in 2019.The standardized mortality and disability-adjusted life years(DALY)of kidney cancer were increased by 103.59% and 103.17%respectively.The highest incidence,mortality and DALY of prostate,kidney and bladder cancers in 2019 were found in 90-94 years old males,the highest prevalence rates of prostate,kidney and bladder cancers in the 70-89-year-olds,and the highest prevalence of testis cancer in the 25-49-year-olds.ARIMA model prediction showed that the standardized incidence rates of prostate,testis,kidney and bladder cancers in Chinese men kept rising from 2020 to 2029.Conclusion:The disease burden of prostate,testis,kidney and bladder cancers in Chinese men is on the rise,and their standardized incidence rates will be even higher by 2029,with a significant increase in the disease burden in young men,which suggests the need of more attention to the prevention and treatment of genitourinary system tumors in young males.

关 键 词：男性泌尿与生殖 肿瘤 疾病负担 预测 

分 类 号：R73-31[医药卫生—肿瘤] R737[医药卫生—临床医学]