郑州市生态系统服务价值评估及多情景模拟  

Valuation and Multi-scenario Simulation of Ecosystem Service Value in Zhengzhou City

作　　者：郭兰博 赵冬 杨嗣海 尤清田 孙婷婷[2] GUO Lanbo;ZHAO Dong;YANG Sihai;YOU Qingtian;SUN Tingting(Henan Kebo Information Technology Service Co.,Ltd.,Zhengzhou 450052,China;Institute of Geographical Science,Henan Academy of Sciences,Zhengzhou 450052,China;Henan Quntuo Construction Engineering Co.,Ltd.,Luoyang 471500,China;Luanchuan County Culture,Broadcasting/TV and Tourism Bureau,Luoyang 471500,China)

机构地区：[1]河南科博信息技术服务有限公司,河南郑州450052 [2]河南省科学院地理研究所,河南郑州450052 [3]河南群拓建筑工程有限公司,河南洛阳471500 [4]栾川县文化广电和旅游局,河南洛阳471500

出　　处：《环境科学与技术》2024年第6期191-199,共9页Environmental Science & Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41807018);河南省重点研发与推广专项(232102320269);河南省科学院基本科研费项目(240601087)。

摘　　要：人类活动和自然资源改变对郑州市生态系统服务价值(ESV)产生较大影响。该研究以1990、2000、2010和2020年土地利用数据为基础数据,采用修正后的标准当量因子,结合斑块生成土地利用变化模拟(PLUS)模型,模拟郑州市2030年自然发展情景、耕地保护情景和生态保护情景下的土地利用数据,分析和预测郑州市生态系统服务价值时空演变规律。结果表明:(1)1990-2020年郑州市主要土地利用类型为耕地和建设用地,2000-2010年,建设用地面积动态度达到峰值9.85%;(2)1990-2020年郑州市ESV低值区以片状形式分布,2020年占比65.19%,面积增加1339.58 km^(2),中值区和较高值区以“二核、三级”分布,高值区平均占比3.59%;(3)1990-2020年郑州市ESV减少13.919亿元,其中,ESV收益主要来源于耕地向水域的转变,而ESV损失主要来源于林地向建设用地的转变、林地向耕地的转变和水域向建设用地的转变;(4)3种情景下,生态保护情景下土地利用面积变化幅度最小,自然发展和耕地保护情景下ESV有所下降,生态保护情景下ESV增加1.23亿元,冷点浓度也更为明显。研究结果将为郑州市国土空间规划与生态保护提供积极的指导意义。Human activities and natural resource changes have exerted considerable impact on the ecosystem service value(ESV)of Zhengzhou City.In this study,the standard equivalent factor,which was revised according to the basic land-use data of 1990,2000,2010 and 2020,was adopted combined with the patch-generation land-use change simulation(PLUS)model to simulate the land-use data of Zhengzhou in three scenarios(nature development,cultivated land protection and ecological protection)in the year 2030.In this way,the spatio-temporal evolution of ecosystem service value was analyzed and forecast.Results of the modeling simuation showed that main land-use pattern of Zhengzhou was cultivated land and construction land in 1990-2020,and the dynamic degree of construction land-use area reached the apex(9.85%)from 2000 to 2010;During the period between 1990 and 2020,the area of low ESV in Zhengzhou was distributed in a“lamellar”form,accounting for 65.19%in 2020,and during the time the increased area being up to 1339.58 km^(2),the areas of median and slightly high ESV were distributed in the form of“secondary nuclear and tertiary”,and the area of high ESV accounted for 3.59%;ESV of Zhengzhou decrease by 1.3919 billion yuan during this period,the gain of ESV mainly came from the conversion of cultivat⁃ed land to water bodies,while the loss od ESV was caused by the conversion of forest land to construction land,forest land to farmland and waterbodies to construction land.With respect to the above three scenarios,in the ecological protection scenario the variation amplitude of land use area was the smallest;ESV decreased in the natural development and cultivated land pro⁃tection scenarios;and ESV increased by 123 million yuan in ecological protection scenario,with the“cold point”concentra⁃tion being more obvious.It is expected that the results of this study would provide positive guidance for the territorial plan⁃ning and ecological protection of Zhengzhou.

关 键 词：土地利用 生态系统服务价值 PLUS模型 情景模拟 郑州市 

分 类 号：X171.1[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]