重度慢性牙周炎患者发病风险因素分析及预测模型构建  

Analysis of risk factors for severe chronic periodontitis onset in patients and construction of a prediction model

作　　者：王建民 郭洪 陈雨 Wang Jianmin;Guo Hong;Chen Yu(The First People's Hospital of Nanyang City,Nanyang,Henan 473000,China)

机构地区：[1]南阳市第一人民医院,河南南阳473000

出　　处：《齐齐哈尔医学院学报》2024年第15期1436-1440,共5页Journal of Qiqihar Medical University

摘　　要：目的分析重度慢性牙周炎患者发病的影响因素,并构建Nomogram预测模型。方法选择2021年8月—2023年6月本院收治的180例慢性牙周炎患者为研究对象,根据患者是否发病,病变加重分为重度组(78例)和非重度组(102例)两组。观察两组研究对象的基线资料,采用ROC实验分析连续性变量的预测价值;采用Logistic回归实验分析影响重度慢性牙周炎患者发病的相关因素;采用内部数据验证Nomogram模型临床效能。结果与非重度组[48(47.06%)、49(48.04%)、39(38.24%)、39(38.24%)、67(65.69%)、2(1,2)]相比,重度组患者吸烟59例(75.65%)、糖尿病59例(75.65%)、有不良修复体49例(62.82%)、合并根分叉病变52例(66.667%)、刷牙次数1次62例(79.49%),刷牙时间1(1,2)min较短,差异均有统计学意义(P<0.05);刷牙时间对重度慢性牙周炎有一定预测价值,AUC为0.669,95%CI为0.583~0.748(P<0.05);吸烟、糖尿病、不良修复体、合并根分叉病变均为重度慢性牙周炎发病的影响因素(P<0.05);Nomogram模型在预测重度慢性牙周炎发病风险方面表现良好,其C-index为0.794(0.728~0.860);当其风险阈值>0.12时,该模型可以较好的提供标准化净收益。结论吸烟、糖尿病、不良修复体、合并根分叉病变均为重度慢性牙周炎发病的影响因素,且基于以上变量构建的Nomogram模型有较好的预测价值。Objective To analyze the factors influencing the development of severe chronic periodontitis in patients and construct a Nomogram prediction model.Methods 180 patients with chronic periodontitis who were admitted to our hospital from August 2021 to June 2023 were selected as the study subjects,and were divided into the severe group(n=78)and the non-severe group(n=102)according to whether they developed lesion aggravation.The baseline data of the two groups were observed,and the predictive value of continuous variables was analyzed by ROC experiment.Logistic regression experiment was used to analyze the factors affecting the development of severe chronic periodontitis in patients;and internal data were used to verify the clinical efficiency of the Nomogram model.Results Compared with the non severe group[48(47.06%),49(48.04%),39(38.24%),39(38.24%),67(65.69%),2(1,2)],the patients in the severe group were different in smoking(59 cases,75.65%),diabetes(59 cases,75.65%),poor repairosome(49 cases,62.82%),combined root bifurcation diseases(52 cases,66.667%),teeth brushing once(62 cases,79.49%),the brushing time 1(1,2),an the differences were statistically significnat(P<0.05).The duration of teeth brushing had predictive value for severe chronic periodontitis,AUC was 0.669,95%CI was 0.583~0.748(P<0.05).Smoking,diabetes,bad repairosome,and combined root bifurcation lesions were all influencing factors in the development of severe chronic periodontitis(P<0.05).Nomogram model performed well in predicting the risk of development of severe chronic periodontitis(P<0.05),with a C-index of 0.794(0.728~0.860).When its risk threshold was over 0.12,the model could provide standardized net benefit well.Conclusions Smoking,diabetes mellitus,poor repairosome,and combined root bifurcation lesions are influencing factors in the development of severe chronic periodontitis,and the Nomogram model constructed on the basis of the above variables has a good predictive value.

关 键 词：慢性牙周炎 发病 影响因素 Nomogram预测模型 

分 类 号：R781.42[医药卫生—口腔医学]