基于蒙特卡洛法的电化学储能电站可靠性分析  

Reliability Analysis of Electrochemical Energy Storage Power Station Based on Monte Carlo Method

作　　者：刘有为 陈小波 吴凯 LIU Youwei;CHEN Xiaobo;WU Kai(Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.,Limited(CATL),Ningde 352100,Fujian Province,China;China Electric Power Research Institute,Haidian District,Beijing 100192,China)

机构地区：[1]宁德时代新能源科技股份有限公司,福建省宁德市352100 [2]中国电力科学研究院有限公司,北京市海淀区100192

出　　处：《电网技术》2024年第8期3299-3306,共8页Power System Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(吉瓦时级锂离子电池储能系统技术(2021YFB2400102))。

摘　　要：在世界范围内,电化学储能(electrochemical energy storage,EES)呈加速发展态势,但EES电站的可靠性不够高,尚有很大提升空间,日益成为关注的焦点之一。在不断强化EES装备质量监督的同时,优化EES电站设计,选择适宜的直挂电压等级和机组冗余方案,会对整个EES电站可靠性产生很大影响。该文以组成EES机组的子模块为基本单元,基于行业统计数据,应用蒙特卡洛(Monte Carlo,MC)法,分析了EES机组及电站的可靠性。分析结果表明,在子模块总数及冗余数完全相同的条件下,直挂不同电压等级会对EES电站的可靠性产生显著影响。按当前子模块故障率平均水平计及离线检修的作业方式,采用直挂较低电压等级、较多EES机组并列的设计,EES电站有更高的可靠性,明显优于直挂较高电压等级、较少EES机组并列的方案;若需直挂更高电压等级,子模块故障率宜处于极低水平。文中还分析了EES电站不同冗余方案、检修周期及在线检修等对可靠性的影响,研究发现,对于大型EES电站,子模块冗余与机组冗余相结合,故障检修与长周期定期检修相结合,可明显提升EES电站可用系数。该文所得结论可作为EES电站优化选型和设计的参考。Electrochemical energy storage(EES)is accelerating its development worldwide,but the reliability of EES power stations needs to be higher.There is still much room for improvement,becoming increasingly a focus of attention.Continuously strengthening the quality supervision of EES equipment,optimizing the design of EES power stations,and selecting appropriate direct connected voltage levels and unit redundancy schemes will have a significant impact on the reliability of the EES power station.This article takes the sub-modules that make up the EES unit as the basic unit and,based on industry statistical data,applies the Monte Carlo method to analyze the reliability of the EES unit and power station.The analysis results indicate that under the condition of identical total number and redundancy of sub-modules,different voltage levels of direct connection will significantly impact the reliability of EES power stations.Based on the current average level of sub-module failure rate and maintenance in an offline state,the EES power stations with directly connected lower voltage levels and more EES units in parallel have higher reliability,which is significantly better than the scheme with directly connected higher voltage levels and fewer EES units in parallel;If a higher voltage level needs to be directly connected,the sub-module failure rate should be at an extremely low level.The paper also analyzes the impact of different redundancy schemes,maintenance cycles,and online maintenance on the reliability of EES power stations.The study found that for large EES power stations,the combination of sub-module redundancy and unit redundancy,as well as the combination of fault maintenance and long-term periodic maintenance,can significantly improve the availability factor of EES power stations.The conclusions obtained in this article can serve as a reference for the optimization selection and design of EES power stations.

关 键 词：电化学储能 电压等级 冗余 可靠性 

分 类 号：TM721[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]