基于气象水文耦合的水库实时洪水预报方法  

Real-time Reservoir Flood Forecasting Based on Meteorological and Hydrological Coupling

作　　者：谢小燕 高熠飞 徐凯莉 陈宏新 徐静波 XIE Xiao-yan;GAO Yi-fei;XU Kai-li;CHEN Hong-xin;XU Jing-bo(State Grid Electric Power Research Institute,Nanjing 211000,Jiangsu Province,China)

机构地区：[1]国网电力科学研究院有限公司,江苏南京211000

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2024年第8期81-87,93,共8页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：国家电网公司总部科技项目(5700-202140381A-0-0-00)。

摘　　要：以水库实时洪水预报为研究对象,针对中小流域预见期短,流域天然预见期难以满足水利工程生产要求的问题,研究水库实时洪水预报方法,构建基于气象水文耦合的水库实时洪水预报模型。首先,采用短时临近外推技术及STMAS-WAF中尺度天气模式,建立24 h降水预报模型;然后将气象预报成果耦合至水文预报,实现气象水文的时空尺度匹配;最后建立基于来水预报成果反馈的降水预报修正方法,根据前期规律滚动修正未来24 h降水预报成果,将修正后的降水预报输入水文模型,实时预测水库来水,使水文模型从源头上实现准确输入,实现高精度长预见期的水库实时洪水预报,解决了传统水文模型预见期不足的问题。以新安江水库为例开展了模型的实例研究,编制新安江水库气象水文耦合预报方案,进行水库实时洪水预报,并探讨不同降雨输入形式对预报精度的影响,研究结果表明:基于气象水文耦合的水库实时洪水预报方法考虑了气象水文的双向反馈,将新安江水库实时洪水预报预见期从6 h左右提升至18 h,确保18 h预见期内预报精度在80%以上。与不考虑降水预报及使用未修正降水预报的2种传统方法的有效预见期相比,新方法的有效预见期分别提升了200%和29%,有效延长了水库实时洪水预报预见期,提高了洪水预报服务能力,给水库实时洪水预报提供了一种行之有效的方法。This paper takes reservoir real-time flood forecasting as the research object,aiming at the problem that the forecast lead time for flood prediction of small and medium-sized river basins is short and the natural forecast period of river basins is difficult to meet the production requirements of hydraulic project,studies the reservoir real-time flood forecasting method,and builds a reservoir real-time flood forecasting model based on meteorological and hydrological coupling.Firstly,a 24-hour precipitation forecast model is established by using short-time proximity extrapolation technique and STMAS-WAF mesoscale weather model.Then the results of meteorological forecast are coupled to hydrological forecast to achieve the spatio-temporal scale matching of meteorological and hydrological.Finally,a precipitation forecast correction method based on the feedback of incoming water forecast results is established,and the precipitation forecast results in the future 24 h are revised on a rolling basis according to previous rules.The revised precipitation forecast is input into the hydrological model to predict the incoming water from the reservoir in real time,so that the hydrological model can be accurately input from the source,and the real-time flood forecast of the reservoir with high precision and long forecast time can be realized.The problem of insufficient forecast period of traditional hydrological model is solved.The Xinʹanjiang Reservoir is taken as an example to carry out a case study of the model,and the coupled meteorological and hydrological forecast scheme of Xinʹanjiang Reservoir is formulated to carry out real-time flood forecast of the reservoir,and the influence of different rainfall input forms on the forecast accuracy is discussed.The results show that:the model takes into account the bidirectional feedback of meteorology and hydrology,and improves the real-time flood forecast period of the Xinʹanjiang Reservoir from about 6 hours to 18 hours,ensuring that the forecast accuracy within 18 hours is a

关 键 词：中小流域 水库实时洪水预报 降水预报 气象水文耦合 新安江水库 

分 类 号：TV121[水利工程—水文学及水资源]