燃气日负荷预测中温度累积效应的分析  

Analysis of Cumulative Effect of Temperature in Daily Gas Load Prediction

作　　者：徐鹏[1,2] 张飞龙 杜景勃 郑小兵 XU Peng;ZHANG Feilong;DU Jingbo;ZHENG Xiaobing

机构地区：[1]北京建筑大学供热、供燃气、通风及空调工程北京市重点实验室,北京100044 [2]北京建筑大学燃气研究中心,北京100044 [3]北京市设备安装工程集团有限公司,北京100023

出　　处：《煤气与热力》2024年第7期1-6,共6页Gas & Heat

基　　金：内蒙古自治区科技重大专项(2021ZD0038)。

摘　　要：分析历史燃气日负荷与气温之间的关系,研究温度累积效应影响燃气日负荷的特点。基于温度累积效应提出了用于燃气日负荷预测的气温修正模型。根据相关性原理,提出界限温度和最大影响累积时间的求解方法,通过求解温度累积效应系数,对气温进行修正。经过气温修正,预测日负荷与实际燃气日负荷的最大相对误差降低,平均绝对百分比误差也降低,说明基于温度累积效应对气温进行修正的方法能够有效提高燃气日负荷预测精度。The relationship between the historical daily gas load and temperature is analyzed,and the characteristics of cumulative effect of temperature on daily gas load are studied.A temperature correction model for predicting daily gas load is proposed based on the cumulative effect of temperature.According to the principle of correlation,a solution method for boundary temperature and maximum cumulative time of influence is proposed,and the temperature is corrected by solving the cumulative effect coefficient of temperature.After temperature correction,the maximum relative error between the predicted daily load and the actual daily gas load decreases,and the average absolute percentage error also decreases,indicating that the method of temperature correction based on cumulative effect of temperature can effectively improve the prediction accuracy of daily gas load.

关 键 词：温度累积效应 短期负荷预测 燃气日负荷预测 修正温度 BP神经网络 

分 类 号：TU996.3[建筑科学—供热、供燃气、通风及空调工程]