基于出行链的城市货车出行分布预测  

Tour Based Urban Freight Vehicle Distribution Forecasting Method

作　　者：李璐 LI Lu(Shanghai Urban and Rural Construction and Transportation Development Research Institute,Shanghai 200040,China)

机构地区：[1]上海市城乡建设和交通发展研究院,上海200040

出　　处：《交通与运输》2024年第4期1-7,共7页Traffic & Transportation

摘　　要：为解决城市货运建模中货物流分布向货车出行分布转换的难题,提出一种考虑配送需求和出行链特征的货车出行分布分析框架。采用离散选择理论,构建用于从配送需求中分析各类型出行链生成量的出行链类型选择模型和用于分析出行链上每次出行目的地的选择模型,最终得到货车出行分布。以上海市西北物流园区至中心城区的货物配送为例,估计模型参数,预测货车出行链生成量和出行分布。通过样本枚举法对个体选择概率集计,得到出行链类型选择概率和目的地选择概率参数,与实际观测值对比,得出模型精度较好的结论。To solve the problem of converting freight commodity distribution to vehicle distribution in urban freight modelling,an urban freight model framework overall considering delivery demand and tour characteristics is proposed.Using discrete choice theory,the tour type choice model used to analyze the generation of each type of travel chain from the delivery demand and the destination choice model used to analyze the destination of each trip on the tours are built,and finally the freight vehicle trip distribution is obtained.Taking freight delivery from northwest logistics park to urban area in Shanghai for example,model parameters are estimated and the number of vehicle tours and the freight vehicle trip distribution are predicted.The selective probability of tour type and destination are obtained through aggregation of individual choice.Compared with the revealed value.It is concluded that the model has a good accuracy.

关 键 词：城市货运交通 货车出行链 离散选择 出行链类型选择 目的地选择 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]