基于面板模型的多车道高速公路左侧硬路肩运行风险分析  

Operational Risk Analysis of Left Hard Shoulder on Multi-lane Highways Using Panel Models

作　　者：何润景 杨林[2] 刘玮蔚 任蔚溪 陈雨人[3] HE Runjing;YANG Lin;LIU Weiwei;REN Weixi;CHEN Yuren(Guangzhou-Shenzhen Expressway Expansion and Renovation Management Office,Guangzhou 510031,China;CCCC First Highway Consultants Co.,Ltd,Xi'an 710068,China;The Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering,Ministry of Education,Tongji University,Shanghai 200092,China)

机构地区：[1]广深高速公路改扩建管理处,广州510031 [2]中交第一公路勘察设计研究院有限公司,西安710068 [3]同济大学道路与交通工程教育部重点实验室,上海200092

出　　处：《交通与运输》2024年第4期31-36,共6页Traffic & Transportation

摘　　要：随着多车道高速公路的普及,左侧硬路肩的设置已成为一个亟待讨论的问题。目前,车辆驶入左侧硬路肩对主线交通带来的运行风险尚未得到研究。考虑到风险的时空相关性,构建面板模型,提出一种基于运行数据的车道级风险分析方法,计算车辆驶入左侧硬路肩的运行风险,并与车辆驶入右侧硬路肩停靠的风险情况进行对比。研究结果表明,左侧硬路肩的设置可以显著降低车辆停靠过程中产生的运行风险。然而,在车辆停靠初期,左侧硬路肩的设置会导致短时间内产生较大的运行风险。研究成果为多车道高速公路是否设置左侧硬路肩提供了客观评价方法,对左侧硬路肩的风险管控措施设计也具有指导意义。As multi-lane highways become more prevalent,the installation of left-side hard shoulders has emerged as a pressing issue for discussion.Currently,the risks associated with vehicles entering the left-side hard shoulder have not been thoroughly examined concerning their implications for the main traffic flow.Recognizing the spatiotemporal nature of these risks,a panel model is constructed and a lane-specific risk analysis approach is introduced based on operational data.This method calculates the operational risk associated with vehicles entering the left-side hard shoulder and compares it with the risk profile for vehicles entering the right-side hard shoulder for stopping.The research findings indicate that the provision of left hard shoulders can significantly reduce the operational risks during vehicle stopping processes.However,during the initial phase of vehicle stopping,the provision of left hard shoulders can lead to a short-term increase in operational risks.The research outcomes in this paper provide an objective assessment framework for the decision to implement left-side hard shoulders on multi-lane highways,offering valuable guidance for the design of risk management measures pertaining to the left-side hard shoulder.

关 键 词：左侧硬路肩 运行风险分析 面板模型 多车道高速公路 风险时空特性 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]