终端区交通复杂性评估及演变分析  

Assessment and Evolution Analysis of Traffic Complexity in Terminal Area

作　　者：王红勇[1] 马丽书 WANG Hong-yong;MA Li-shu(College of Air Traffic Management,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学空中交通管理学院,天津300300

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2024年第21期9235-9243,共9页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金：天津市自然科学基金(21JCZDJC00840)。

摘　　要：终端区内飞行密集、环境多变,已成为国家空域系统运行能力提升的重要瓶颈。精准量化终端区内交通复杂性并把握其演化规律是实现空中交通精细化管理的基础,对于提升终端区运行能力有重要意义。终端区空中交通复杂性描述了某一时间点或时间段内空中交通流特征的复杂程度。基于动态密度思想,针对终端区运行特征,构建了多维度的空中交通复杂性评价指标,并运用熵权法确定指标权重,反映评估指标的无序化程度,评定信息量的大小。构建复杂度计算模型,从客观上利用多指标反映航空器实时复杂性演变。采用多智能体仿真建模工具NetLogo搭建了终端区仿真环境,以广州终端区的实际进场数据搭建了基础场景,模拟了终端区交通复杂性的宏观演化过程。通过调节进场移交点交通流需求比例、设计不同天气情景,分析了不同场景下交通复杂性演化特征。结果表明,该评估体系使用较少的指标和计算时间,能够较为准确、客观地评估时间片内的复杂性,符合实际情况。NetLogo建模工具能够仿真终端区交通流,直观地观察交通流运行行为。当进场移交点交通流流量分布更为均匀时,复杂性较低。终端区受恶劣天气影响时,其受影响程度取决于恶劣天气覆盖航段的航班流量分布情况、影响的范围以及受影响航段到跑道距离。部分交通流存在迟滞现象,反映了复杂性的蔓延时空特征。该复杂性评估方法能够有效评估航段、航线、终端区复杂性及演变规律,为开展终端区精细化空中交通管理提供参考。The intensive flight and changeable environment in the terminal area have become an important bottleneck for the improvement of the operational capacity of the national airspace system.Accurately quantifying the traffic complexity in terminal area and grasping its evolution law is the basis for realizing the fine management of air traffic,which is of great significance for improving the operation capacity of terminal area.Terminal area air traffic complexity describes the complexity of air traffic flow characteristics at a certain point or time period.Based on the idea of dynamic density,aiming at the operation characteristics of terminal area,a multi-dimensional air traffic complexity evaluation index was constructed,and the entropy weight method was used to determine the index weight,reflect the degree of disorder evaluation index,and assess the size of the amount of information.A complexity calculation model was constructed to objectively reflect the real-time complexity evolution of aircraft by using multiple indexes.The multi-agent simulation modeling tool NetLogo was used to build the simulation environment of the terminal area,and the basic scenario was built based on the actual approach data of the Guangzhou terminal area to simulate the macro-evolution process of the traffic complexity in the terminal area.By adjusting the proportion of traffic flow demand at the entrance and designing different weather scenarios,the evolution characteristics of traffic complexity under different scenarios were analyzed.The results show that this evaluation system can accurately and objectively evaluate the complexity of the time slice,which is in line with the actual situation.The NetLogo modeling tool can simulate the traffic flow in the terminal area and visually observe the traffic flow behavior.When the traffic flow distribution is more uniform,the complexity is lower.When the terminal area is affected by bad weather,the extent to which it is affected depends on the distribution of flight flows in the segment covere

关 键 词：终端区交通流 NetLogo系统仿真 复杂性评估 动态密度 复杂性演化 

分 类 号：V355[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]