基于动态CGE模型的河南省碳税与硫税的达峰效应研究  

Research on the Emission Reduction Effect of Carbon Tax and Sulfur Tax in Henan Province Based on Dynamic CGE Model

作　　者：吴乐英[1,2,3,4] 钟章奇 马晓哲 Wu Leying;Zhong Zhangqi;Ma Xiaozhe

机构地区：[1]河南大学黄河文明与可持续发展研究中心暨黄河文明省部共建协同创新中心,河南郑州450046 [2]河南大学地理与环境学院,河南开封475004 [3]广东外语外贸大学经济贸易学院,广东广州510006 [4]河南省城乡规划设计研究总院博士后科研工作站,河南郑州450044

出　　处：《河南大学学报（社会科学版）》2024年第4期13-20,152,共9页Journal of Henan University(Social Sciences）

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“基于CGE模型与ABS耦合的区域产业结构升级模拟”(41901239)阶段性成果;国家自然科学基金项目“全球气候治理中碳税收入转移支付至农业部门的影响研究”(41701632)阶段性成果;河南省软科学研究计划“河南省碳税和环境税协同效应研究”(192400410085)阶段性成果;河南省青年人才托举工程项目“双碳目标下区域能源-经济-生态系统集成评估模型的开发及应用”(2022HYTP027)阶段性成果。

摘　　要：2030年前碳达峰并于2060年前实现碳中和体现了中国应对气候变化的决心,如何通过碳减排从而实现碳达峰与碳中和是当前需要关注的重点问题,从区域尺度进行碳税和硫税减排效应研究对于实现碳减排目标意义重大。构建河南省42部门动态CGE模型,分析征收碳税和硫税不同组合情景下的减排效应表明,基准情景下河南省经济保持平稳增长趋势,碳排放将于2024年达到峰值;征收100元/吨碳税时,碳排放比基准情景有所下降,且对经济损失较小;硫税对碳减排具有轻微的促进作用;同时征收碳税和硫税的减排量最大,但总产出受损程度也最大。从产业层面,碳税和硫税的征收对第一产业和第二产业的负面影响较大,对第三产业的GDP具有促进作用,能够促进河南省产业结构的调整。China has promised that the carbon emission would peak at 2030and be neutral at 2060.How to realize the carbon peaking and neutral by carbon reduction is a significant matter.Research on the emission reduction effects of carbon tax and sulfur tax from a regional perspective has great significance on achieving carbon emission reduction targets.Taking Henan Province as an example,this study constructs a 42-sector dynamic CGE model and analyzes the emission reduction effects of carbon tax and sulfur tax through scenario analysis.The research results show that under the baseline scenario,Henan’s economy maintains an stable growth trend and carbon emissions will peak in 2024.When a carbon tax of 100yuan/ton is imposed,carbon emissions are lower than the baseline scenario,and the economic loss is quite small.Sulfur tax has a slight promotion effect on carbon emission reduction.At the same time,levying carbon tax and sulfur tax at the same time has the largest emission reduction,with greatest total output damage.From the industrial perspective,levying carbon tax and sulfur tax have greater negative impacts on the primary and secondary industries,while boosting effects on the tertiary industry,giving an implication that carbon tax and sulfur tax can promote the adjustment of the industrial structure of Henan province.

关 键 词：动态CGE模型 碳税 硫税 河南省 

分 类 号：X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学]