“双碳”背景下我国光伏发电企业显隐性价值评估研究  

Research on the Explicit and Implicit Value Evaluation of Photovoltaic Power Generation Enterprises in China Under the Background of"Dual Carbon"

作　　者：谢非 杨秋月 Xie Fei;Yang Qiuyue(Chongqing University of Technology,School of Economics and Finance,Chongqing 400054)

机构地区：[1]重庆理工大学经济金融学院,重庆400054

出　　处：《中国资产评估》2024年第7期39-50,共12页Appraisal Journal of China

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目:“新能源人民币”形成机理及实现路径研究(23AJY023)。

摘　　要：在“3060”的战略引领下,光伏产业作为我国战略性新兴产业,对我国能源转型及高质量发展具有现实意义。光伏发电企业价值评估目前鲜有体现其隐性期权价值,其整体价值或被低估。本文系统地梳理了光伏发电企业的期权特性,将企业未来现金流波动及市场条件变化等不确定性纳入光伏发电企业价值评估的影响因子;基于实物期权与企业价值评估相关理论,构建了改进的FCFF和B-S的组合价值评估模型,同时收集并运用三峡能源光伏发电企业近五年年报数据及湖北碳市场碳交易等相关数据,验证了该模型的合理性与可行性。研究表明,与单一使用收益法模型相比,改进的FCFF和B-S的组合价值评估模型,可以较好地体现光伏发电企业的显性经济价值和隐性期权价值,评估值与企业内在价值更趋一致性。因此,本文提出选择上述评估方法可以更好地提升光伏发电企业价值评估的准确度;光伏发电企业应通过优化内部工艺流程、减少硅耗、数智融合等途径,降本增效提升其显性价值;加大研发投入,通过持续的技术创新发展新质生产力,提升其隐性期权价值的对策建议。Under the guidance of the"3060"strategy,the photovoltaic industry has become a strategic emerging industry in China,which has practical significance for China's energy transformation and high-quality development.At present,the value evaluation of photovoltaic power generation enterprises rarely reflects the value of its hidden options,and its overall value is undervalued.This paper systematically combs the option characteristics of photovoltaic power generation enterprises,and includes the uncertainties such as changes in market conditions and future cash flow fluctuations into the impact factors of PV power generation enterprises'value evaluation.Based on the relevant theories of real options and enterprise value evaluation,an improved FCFF and B-S combined value evaluation model is constructed.Meanwhile,the rationality and feasibility of the model is verified by collecting and using the annual report data of Three Gorges Energy photovoltaic power generation enterprises in the past five years and the relevant data of carbon trading in Hubei carbon market.The research shows that compared with the single-use income method model,the improved FCFF and B-S combined value evaluation model can better reflect the explicit economic value and implicit option value of photovoltaic power generation enterprises,and the evaluation value is more consistent with the intrinsic value of enterprises.Therefore,this paper proposes that selecting the above evaluation methods can better improve the accuracy of the evaluation value of photovoltaic power generation enterprises;Photovoltaic power generation enterprises should optimize the internal process,reduce silicon consumption,data and intelligence integration and other ways to reduce cost and increase efficiency to enhance its dominant value;It is suggested to increase R&D investment,develop new quality productivity through continuous technological innovation,and enhance the value of its hidden options.

关 键 词：企业价值评估 光伏发电企业 显性经济价值 隐性期权价值 

分 类 号：F275[经济管理—企业管理]