基于SHAP分析的施工作业区通行能力影响要素研究  

Study on the Influencing Elements of Capacity in Construction Work Area Based on SHAP Analysis

作　　者：韦红亮 章霞 吴培佳 王益 周晨静 WEI Hongliang;ZHANG Xia;WU Peijia;WANG Yi;ZHOU Chenjing(Expressway Development Center of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region,Nanning 530022,China;Beijing Key Laboratory of Traffic Engineering Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China;Guangzhou University,School of Civil Engineering and Transportation,Guangzhou 510006,China)

机构地区：[1]广西壮族自治区高速公路发展中心,南宁530022 [2]北京工业大学交通工程北京市重点实验室,北京100124 [3]广州大学土木与交通工程学院,广州510006

出　　处：《交通工程》2024年第8期23-30,37,共9页Journal of Transportation Engineering

基　　金：广西壮族自治区交通运输厅科技示范工程(广西高速公路交通拥堵防治智能决策系统工程);广州市基础研究计划基础与应用基础研究专题青年博士“启航”项目(SL2024A04J00335)。

摘　　要：融合微观仿真与机器学习技术,对施工作业区通行能力影响要素及取值进行系统性研究。采用标定后的微观仿真工具,搭建常见6类快速路施工作业区仿真场景,获得限速值、上游过渡段长度、大车比例等参数影响下的施工作业区通行能力。采用SHAP模型可视化分析限速、大车比例、上游过渡区长度对施工区通行能力的作用机理,分析各个因素对施工作业区影响的具体过程,并选取BP神经网络建立6类施工区通行能力预测模型。This study integrates microsimulation and machine learning techniques to systematically investigate the influencing factors and values of construction work zone capacity.Firstly,the calibrated microsimulation tool is used to build the simulation scenarios of construction work zones of six types of common expressways to obtain the capacity of the construction work zones under the influence of the speed limit,the length of the upstream transition section,and the proportion of large vehicles.And then,the SHAP model is used to visualize and analyze the mechanism of the speed limit,the proportion of large vehicles,and the length of the upstream transition zone on the capacity of the construction zone,analyze the specific process of the influence of each factor on the construction zone,and finally select the BP neural network to establish a prediction model for the capacity of the six types of construction zones.

关 键 词：施工作业区 通行能力 SHAP模型 BP神经网络 影响机理 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]