中国竹藤类产品贸易流量与潜力研究——基于贸易引力模型检验  

Study on China's Trade Flows and Potential of Bamboo and Rattan Products--Based on Trade Gravity Model Tests

作　　者：马红波 肖建武[1,2] MA Hong-bo;XIAO Jian-wu(Business School,Central South University of Forestry and Technology,Changsha 410004,Hunan,P.R.China;Rescarch Center of Hunan Ecological Civilization Construction,Changsha 410004,Hunan,P.R.China)

机构地区：[1]中南林业科技大学商学院,湖南长沙410004 [2]湖南省生态文明建设研究基地,湖南长沙410004

出　　处：《林产工业》2024年第8期88-92,共5页China Forest Products Industry

基　　金：湖南省创新型省份建设专项(2020 NK4126);长沙市农业科技特派员计划项目。

摘　　要：基于贸易引力模型,选取2012—2021年这10年间的跨国面板数据,探讨中国对20个竹藤类产品主要贸易伙伴国的双边贸易影响因素。在此基础上对2021年中国与竹藤类产品主要贸易伙伴国的理论贸易额进行测算,通过实际贸易额与理论贸易额的比值,将20个样本国家的竹藤类产品贸易潜力划分为三类。结果显示:双边国家的经济规模总量越大,加入APEC等对竹藤类产品贸易具有显著正向作用;两国间的绝对距离、人均森林面积差额的绝对值等对竹藤类产品贸易则具有负向作用。在20个样本国家中,潜力再造型国家有7个、潜力开拓型国家有7个、潜力巨大型国家有6个。Based on the trade gravity model,in this paper,cross-country panel data for the 10-year period from 2012 to 2021 were selected to explore the factors influencing China's bilateral trade with 20 major trading partner countries of bamboo and rattan-based products.On this basis,the theoretical trade volume between China and the major trading partner countries of bamboo and rattan products in 2021 was measured,and the trade potential of bamboo and rattan products in the 20 sample countries was classified into three categories by the ratio of the actual trade volume to the theoretical trade volume.The results showed that the larger the total economic scale of the bilateral countries,joining APEC,etc.had a more significant positive effect on the trade of bamboo and rattan products.The absolute distance between the two countries,the absolute value of the difference in per capita forest area,etc.had a negative effect on the trade of bamboo and rattan products.Among the 20 sample countries,7 countries belonged to the potential re-modelling type,7 countries belonged to the potential pioneering type,and 6 countries belonged to the huge potential type.

关 键 词：竹藤类产品 贸易流量 贸易潜力 贸易引力模型 影响因素 

分 类 号：TS653[轻工技术与工程] TS396