城市交通承载力系统动力学评估及多情景预测  

System Dynamics Evaluation and Multi-Scenario Prediction of Urban Traffic Carrying Capacity

作　　者：李小静[1] 张金伟 李子文 LI Xiaojing;ZHANG Jinwei;LI Ziwen(School of Traffic and Transportation,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州交通大学交通运输学院,兰州730070

出　　处：《兰州交通大学学报》2024年第4期17-27,共11页Journal of Lanzhou Jiaotong University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71861023);甘肃省科技厅重点研发计划项目(23YFFA0058)。

摘　　要：为了城市交通的可持续发展,对城市交通承载力的可靠性进行评估和情景预测。重新定义了城市交通承载力,构建基于系统动力学的计算模型。以兰州市为例,对2023-2030年的未来交通在5种情景发展模式下的交通承载力进行可靠性评估和预测。结果表明:系统动力学模型具有较高的精度水平,绝对误差在3%以内。兰州市在5种设定情景下,2030年资源承载力均处于临界可靠状态;环境承载力在环境改善型时达到最高30.88,为基本可靠;社会经济承载力在综合发展时达到最大24.8,为临界可靠。分别提升交通资源和社会经济都会提升相应的子系统承载力,然而交通环境承载力却具有一定的下降趋势,这符合城市交通实际情况,验证了系统之间存在着复杂的正负反馈关系。城市交通承载力呈现出逐步提升的趋势,将在2026年以后均达到20以上,处于临界可靠区间。且综合发展型提升效果最好,2030年相比2022年增长47.2%,已接近基本可靠区间。For the sustainable development of urban traffic, the reliability of urban traffic carrying capacity is evaluated and scenario predicted. The urban traffic carrying capacity is redefined and the calculation model based on System Dynamics(SD) is built.Taking Lanzhou City as an example, the future traffic carrying capacity reliability of Lanzhou City is assessed and forecast from 2023 to 2030 under five scenario development modes.The results show that the SD model has a high level of accuracy, and the absolute error is less than 3%.In 2030,the resource carrying capacity of Lanzhou City will be in a critical reliable state under 5 scenarios.And the environment carrying capacity will reach the maximum 30.88 when the environment is improved, which is basically reliable. And the social-economic carrying capacity will reach a peak of 24.8 in the comprehensive development type, which is critical reliable.The improvement of traffic resources and social-economic enhances the corresponding subsystem carrying capacity, but the traffic environment carrying capacity has a certain downward tendency, which is in accordance with the actual situation of urban traffic and verifies the complex positive and negative feedback relationship among the systems.The urban traffic carrying capacity shows a gradual increasing trend and will exceed 20 after 2026,which is within the critical reliable interval.The comprehensive development type will have the best improvement effect, with an increase of 47.2% in 2030 compared to 2022,which is close to the basic reliable range.

关 键 词：城市交通承载力 系统动力学 可靠性评估 情景预测 可持续发展 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]